Slow, Gradual

A promise of more democracy

A country of 120 million people can not be ruled by a President chosen by a single man and ratified by a handful of others." So said Brazil's losing presidential candidate, Euler Bentes Monteiro, but he was wrong. To the surprise of no one, the country's electoral college--heavily weighted in favor of the pro-government Alliance for National Renewal (ARENA)--chose General Joao Baptista Figueiredo, 60, to succeed retiring President Ernesto Geisel for a six-year term beginning in March. The predictable vote was 355 for Figueiredo, vs. 226 for Monteiro, who represented the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), the country's only legal opposition party.

Figueiredo immediately extended --perhaps thrust was a better word--an olive branch toward those who had opposed his candidacy. "I will promote a political opening," Figueiredo told newsmen. "And if anyone opposes it, I will arrest them, break them. And I mean it." The statement was predictably hard-nosed, coming as it did from Geisel's hand-picked successor--the fifth general designated to govern Brazil since a military junta ousted President Joao Goulart nearly 15 years ago. All the generals have been stern, but they have lately been disposed to give Brazilians a controlled measure of political freedom. Geisel, who described his country as a "relative democracy," ended newspaper censorship, limited the arrest and torture of dissidents, and permitted the formation of opposition.

Even though the election was foreordained and there was no direct popular vote, the new President-elect waged an active ten-month campaign to overcome a serious problem: he was relatively unknown. The son of a general, Figueiredo is a career officer who had been the shadowy director of Brazil's national intelligence service under Geisel. Figueiredo even hired a Sao Paulo advertising agency to improve his image. At their direction, he abandoned his customary tinted glasses for clear lenses, began to kiss babies and beauty queens and even submitted to a kindergarten interview session, during which he told one mite of his upcoming presidency: "I won't enjoy it at all. I promise you that." In what was intended as a jocular reference to his past service in the cavalry, Figueiredo allowed that he preferred "the smell of horses to the smell of people." He was dismayed when the remark was headlined across Brazil.

Figueiredo has promised "a slow and gradual" return to more democracy in Brazil--as long, it was clearly implied, as his countrymen continue to behave themselves. That promise may be difficult to keep. Figueiredo has pledged to follow his predecessors' domestic and international policies--meaning, among other things, that there will be no drastic changes in the country's economic model.

Unfortunately for the President-elect, the bloom has vanished from the Brazilian boom. Largely because of heavy petroleum imports, the national debt has reached $40 billion and inflation is running at 40% annually. A "cost of living" movement has collected more than 1 million signatures in Sao Paulo alone on a petition demanding price freezes and wage hikes. At the same time, there is a potentially dangerous split among the generals: many of them oppose any further liberalization and object to the fact that Geisel himself selected a successor instead of seeking a consensus.

Figueiredo's first big test will be the congressional elections next month; polls already indicate widespread protest support for the opposition MDB. In addition, as part of Geisel's political reforms, Figueiredo will be the first President to govern since 1968 without benefit of Institutional Act No. 5, which gave Brazil's chief executive the power to shut down an unruly congress and deprive citizens of their political rights. Thus the new Brazilian President could conceivably find himself facing a legislature controlled by the opposition--and, embarrassingly, Figueiredo would have no clear legal authority to do anything about it. -

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