Fast Sart for The Democrats

Wait till next time, says G. O. P.

If ever the Republicans had a chance I to make political capital," says California Pollster Mervin Field, "it is now." With the latest polls showing that only 30% of the voters approve of Jimmy Carter's performance in office, the Republicans might be expected to exploit such traditional issues as high taxes and Government spending as a means of winning the coming congressional elections. Yet all across the country, Democrats are displaying considerable strength at the midsummer point in congressional races. Indeed a recent Gallup poll found that Americans by 59% to 41% planned to vote for Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans. In Washington, moreover, top officials of both parties foresee no major Republican comeback in either the House or the Senate this fall. Democrats now control the House by 287 seats to 146 and the Senate by 62 to 38. Both sides' predictions of the outcome in November are close: Republican Party officials expect to pick up fewer than 15 seats in the House and none in the Senate; Democratic Party leaders expect to lose no more than twelve in the House and to gain one or two in the Senate.

The weakness of the Republicans surprises a number of political analysts who cite the historical pattern of midterm gains by the party that does not control the White House. Actually, however, the big off-year gains by the opposition party have generally been made during the incumbent President's second term, not during his first. Moreover, the Democrats have a number of important factors working in their favor:

>Most Democratic candidates are managing to keep voters from connecting them with the faltering President. In New Jersey, for instance, Senate Nominee Bill Bradley has been describing Carter as "well intentioned but ineffective." Says a New York Democratic operative: "Fortunately for us, I don't think Carter's problems are transferable to other Democratic candidates at either state or congressional levels."

>The Democrats have in many cases usurped the Republicans' traditional positions in favor of lower taxes and less Government spending. As Tennessee Politico Shelton Edwards once observed: "The way to get somewhere in politics is to find a crowd that's going some place and get in front of it." Conservative G.O.P. Strategist Lyn Nofziger grudgingly praises Democrats like California Governor Jerry Brown, who first opposed, then capitalized on his state's property tax revolt. Says Nofziger: "The Democrats are very fast to get in front on such an issue.

Many Republicans will just sit there and whine about it."

>Incumbents running for re-election --most of them are Democrats--start out with an enormous advantage. They already have trained staffs, are better known and can raise money more easily than their opponents. Says Detroit Pollster Robert Teeter: "Any incumbent Congressman who loses deserves it. "According to Political Scientist Vincent Naramore of St. Michael's College in Winooski, Vt., statistics indicate that incumbents have only a 10% chance of losing.

>Americans generally vote for the party rather than for the candidate in midterm elections. This trend helps the Democrats because 45% of the registered voters identify themselves as members of the Democratic Party; only 22% are registered as Republicans (up from 19% four years ago).

To keep this fall's congressional elections from being interpreted as a Republican defeat, G.O.P. National Chairman William Brock is going to great lengths to point out his party's modest expectations. Republicans, he says, are concentrating their money and energy on local races, where they forecast a net gain of six governorships and 250 seats in the state legislatures. He adds: "What we're trying to do is restore our party's base so we can go into 1980 with lots of enthusiasm and momentum. "In other words: wait till next time.

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