Dim Prediction

Maybe by '86, say utilities

As early as 1979, North American output of electricity will fall short of demand, starting in the Southeast, then in other areas, until by 1986 power shortages will become almost nationwide and stretch into Canada. That is the forecast of the National Electric Reliability Council, an organization composed of virtually all U.S. and many Canadian power companies. William McCollam Jr., chairman of the NERC, bluntly summarizes: "You're going to have curtailments, brownouts, blackouts."

Why? Primarily, says the NERC, because "overlapping and conflicting" Government regulations delay construction of generating and transmission facilities. The utilities especially complain that "lack of timely and adequate rate relief (meaning approval of higher rates) endangers their ability to raise the $250 billion to $300 billion of new construction capital required in the next ten years. Also, the utilities foresee a fuel shortage. Meeting the nation's power needs, says the NERC, would require more than doubling coal output, to 1.3 billion tons by 1986. The utilities demand that the Government move faster in leasing federally owned Western land to coal-mining companies.

Government officials find the NERC forecast overly gloomy. McCollam's response: "We think their assessment is unduly optimistic. Maybe somewhere between is the answer."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.