Scares' Shaky Political Seesaw

He leads a minority government in an economically depressed country. In the space of three years Portugal has overthrown an entrenched dictatorship, absorbed a military-inspired revolution and narrowly escaped a Communist takeover. But affable, astute Mario Scares, 52, remains the champion player of his country's seesaw political game. Since his election as Premier a year ago last month, the Socialist leader has cleverly played off Communists against centrists, centrists against conservatives, confident that all sides have an interest in seeing his democratically elected government succeed. Otherwise, he explains, "there would be no alternative but dictatorship."

During the past few weeks, though, with a stack of important bills before the 263-member National Assembly, Soares' vote-shopping gambit has run into trouble. As one diplomatic observer put it: "The Socialists got a clear signal that a minority government is not a ma jority government." Adeline Amaro da Costa, deputy leader of the Social Democratic Center party, was more succinct. "We were giving our parties to the government," he said. "It was a kind of floating coalition, in which we submitted to something like alternate adultery."

The formula worked fairly well for a while. A skillful tactician, Scares secured support from Alvaro Cunhal's Communists on such important measures as regulating strikes, then turned around and gained the backing of Francisco Sa Carneiro's centrist Social Democrats (P.S.D.) and Diogo Freitas do Amaral's rightist Social Democratic Center (C.D.S.) on a Communist-opposed bill that permits the firing of workers for cause.

Soares' first major defeat came on a bill intended to extend central control over local governments. The bill was objectionable to all three opposition parties, since they have large municipal followings in some areas, and the unlikely trio teamed up to kill it. The setback was the first sign of parliamentary cooperation between the P.S.D. and the C.D.S. following the creation of a so-called con-vergencia democrdtica, in which the two parties, though shying away from forming a unified voting bloc, agreed to work together when possible. What irked the opposition, said Amaro da Costa, was the Socialists' frequent failure to keep it informed. "Everything was arranged in the corridors. The Premier would go on a trip, and we would have to find out from the newspapers what happened."

Scares has long held that elaborate consultations with the opposition on pending legislation could be interpreted as a "privileged relationship" that might erode his ability to govern. But when it became obvious that the Socialists did not have the votes to push through a crucial agrarian reform bill designed to reduce Communist control in the agricultural Alentejo, he had to compromise. While the C.D.S. refused to support the Socialist approach, the P.S.D. was swayed by Scares' offer to include some property-protection guarantees that it advocated and, more important, by a promise to hold "working group discussions" with the party on future legislation. P.S.D. National Assembly members actually defied Leader Sa Carneiro's request that they abstain and voted with Scares, providing him with a healthy margin of victory.

Optimistic Mood. Scares gets generally good marks from the Portuguese on his performance. A recent poll by the Lisbon weekly Expresso showed him far ahead of any opposition leader hi popularity. There are other reasons for the Premier's optimistic mood. Tourism is up for the first tune in three years; production has risen in such industries as textiles, construction and heavy machinery; the government has managed to hold the line on a 15% wage-increase limit. Above all, a dozen countries, led by the U.S., are preparing an 18-month loan package of about $750 million. That will go a long way toward helping Lisbon meet its balance of payments deficit, now running at some $1 billion.

But that does not mean that the economy--or the government--is out of the woods. Inflation continues at the riptide rate of more than 30% annually. Unemployment, though slightly down, is still at 15% of the work force. Many of the 700,000 refugees from the former colonies of Angola and Mozambique have not been fully absorbed into the labor force. Scares is planning to introduce a new austerity program in the next few months, and labor reaction to that could prove troublesome.

Even so, Scares is confident that his government will survive. Says he: "This government has created and institutionalized a pluralist regime and a democracy with liberties for all. Some of our measures will be unpopular, but we will continue to govern through the end of our term."

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