Probing NATO's Northern Flank

On the average of three times monthly, a Soviet Tu-16 "Badger" reconnaissance jet roars off from the world's largest military base, just outside Murmansk, and heads westward to probe Norway's air defenses. Alerted by radar, a vast ultramodern command center in the craggy mountain range of northern Norway scrambles two Norwegian Royal Air Force F-104G Starfighters. The fighters usually intercept the Badger within a few minutes; one of them hangs off the Soviet craft's tail, while the other flies just ahead of its nose. The lead Norwegian Starfighter will then waggle its wings in a signal to the Soviet pilot to turn back before he has violated Norwegian airspace. If the Russian ignores the warning, the Norwegian leader will, in response, slip under the Tu-16's wings and then gently raise his wing to within inches of the Soviet plane, forcing the intruder to turn back. Explains a Norwegian air force colonel: "The Russian pilot knows that the fighter on his tail can blast him to bits if he doesn't obey fast."

NATO's northern flank is being probed with increasing frequency these days by Soviet forces. In addition to the dangerous game of chicken played in the air by Moscow's reconnaissance planes, Soviet warships in mounting numbers maneuver perilously close to the Danish and Norwegian coasts. The Soviet muscle flexing near the desolate Arctic Circle worries Western military officials. Warns Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Alexander M. Haig: "If you look at the current situation of strategic parity, it is evident that we are not going to be faced in the short term with a major onslaught across the eastern frontiers. We are going to be plagued by those ambiguous situations on the flanks." Says

Anders C. Sjaastad, research associate of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs: "The Soviets have changed their stance, from a defensive to an offensive posture."

The greater pressure is on Norway. Up until now, the pattern has been for the Soviet navy to hold major exercises off the Norwegian coast twice a year. Last week, for the second time in less than three months, units of the Russian navy--including the new star of the Soviet fleet, the 40,000-ton aircraft carrier Kiev--took part in practice maneuvers in the northern Norwegian sea. The exercise included an unusually strong display of air capability. The 40 or so ships and 30 submarines involved in the operation were only part of the Murmansk-based Soviet Northern Fleet, which includes 51 major surface vessels and 180 subs. On the Kola Peninsula, the Soviets regularly carry out increasingly sophisticated amphibious exercises. The silhouettes of Soviet nuclear submarines have been spotted gliding quietly in many of Norway's fjords.

The doughty Norwegians also have become embroiled in a series of diplomatic and territorial disputes with their giant neighbor. The touchiest is the issue of how to establish their areas of control in the Barents Sea and its continental shelf. Not only do the Soviets want to protect their strategic position around Murmansk, they also seek increased fishing rights and access to the potential oil and gas reserves in the 59,870 sq. mi. under dispute. After seven years of negotiations on the question, says a Norwegian diplomat, "we've got absolutely nowhere."

The forbidding island of Spitsbergen is another bone of contention. The Soviets keep pressing Oslo for a "special arrangement" that would enhance their economic rights on the island, which was demilitarized in 1920 by a 40-nation treaty and placed under Norwegian sovereignty. Rebuffed, Moscow nonetheless insists on maintaining 3,400 Russians on Spitsbergen (v. 1,000 Norwegians), most of whom are military men disguised as civilians. Under the treaty, their presence on the island is perfectly legal, so long as they obey Norwegian laws. One of their assignments: to discourage Norwegian interest in the Kola Peninsula's military installations.

While the Danes have no territorial or diplomatic disagreements with Moscow, they are uneasy about Soviet demonstrations of military strength off their coasts. Like their Norwegian allies, Danish pilots must scramble regularly to counter Soviet incursions into their country's airspace. NATO experts are alarmed by the dramatic rise in the flow of Warsaw Pact naval strength in the region and by the gradual westward shift of amphibious exercises. Soviet, Polish and East German destroyers cruise year round at the Baltic end of the Danish Straits; Soviet destroyers patrol the Skagerrak from May to October, in effect controlling traffic from the North Atlantic in and out of the Baltic. Last year the Soviets held a major naval maneuver off the west coast of Denmark for the first time; Danish officials expect a repeat some time this summer. The Soviets have significantly bolstered their Baltic presence, adding six G-II-class submarines armed with nuclear missiles.

Nuclear Balance. As Soviet amphibious exercises gradually advance toward Denmark's shores, Danes have become concerned about a surprise attack. Says a high-level Danish officer; "There has been a vast erosion of our warning time in case of attack." The Danes talk about a "Yom Kippur War syndrome," recalling that in 1973 Cairo was able to surprise the Israelis partly because the Egyptian army had been pressing its maneuvers forward little by little and holding them frequently. Says a top Danish military official: "We must be careful that we do not accept the repetition of the unusual as normal."

The Soviet Union's strength on NATO's northern flank has a direct bearing on the East-West nuclear balance. The Soviets have been sending their highly sophisticated Delta-class 14,000-ton nuclear submarines, armed with SSN8 missiles (range: nearly 5,000 miles), ever deeper into the Arctic Sea. Says Willy O/streng, research associate at the Norwegian Arctic Research Institute: "For the first time the Soviets have direct access to the high seas, even if under ice, without having to go through international straits. From that area, their Delta-class subs can shower any part of the U.S. with nuclear missiles." NATO naval forces, moreover, find it difficult to detect the Soviet subs under the constantly shifting ice.

So far at least, Soviet muscle flexing has produced more defiance than fear among NATO'S two members in Scandinavia. As confidence in detente has waned, support for increased defense expenditures has risen. "People have seen the Soviets and their friends smile on the public stage, while relentlessly pushing ahead militarily," says a Danish Foreign Ministry official. "They can see some of it themselves by just riding down to the coast on their bikes." One result is that the often criticized and sometimes creaking NATO alliance rarely has been more appreciated among Norwegians and Danes than it is today.

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