Summit at Downing Street

White House advisers are referring to this week's seven-nation conference in London as the "Downing Street summit." The phrase has a reassuring ring, evoking images of leather upholstery, briar pipes, glasses of sherry, and urbane diplomats about to decide the fate of the world without undue interference from press or public. Those days are long gone, of course, but Jimmy Carter is taking a kind of subdued, 19th century approach to his two-day meeting with the leaders of Britain, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada. He plans to listen and learn, and not press too hard for U.S. policies. No one expects great decisions to be made. At best the negotiators may agree to cooperate on such problems as economic stagnation, nuclear proliferation, East-West relations and Middle East tensions.

One of the most interesting items not on the agenda is Carter himself, making his first trip abroad as President. Foreign leaders are curious about him. To them, he remains an unknown and sometimes baffling phenomenon. They acknowledge that he has assumed control of U.S. foreign policy but wonder if he knows how to manage it. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, in particular, distrusts what he considers an evangelistic style and inexperience. "He is making policy from the pulpit," scoffs Schmidt privately. In an effort to strike up a badly needed rapport, the President and the Chancellor will have a private talk during the sessions.

During the conference, Carter hopes to show that he is both practical and flexible, and that his statecraft must be taken seriously. Says a top presidential adviser: "The President is acutely conscious that there are plenty of uncertainties and even worries about him in Europe. I think he will impress them as a pragmatist, not a moralist, and as a guy who's got a firm grip on the problems." Fuel Sales. Carter arrives bolstered by firm public support at home. A New York Times/CBS News survey last week showed that he had a 64% favorable rating after announcing his energy program. That was a drop of eight points from a Gallup poll earlier in April, but not the 15 points he had feared.

In Europe, officials, who had long urged the U.S. to cut back its prodigal use of fuel, were much relieved. Le Monde estimated that by increasing coal production and reducing consumption, the U.S. could realize 55% of the possible energy savings for the entire industrialized world. Concluded the Paris newspaper: "These nations can therefore say, 'At last!' " A senior aide to British Energy Secretary Anthony Wedgwood Benn commented, "It's an act of considerable courage for the leader of the largest energy user in the world to set out policies for conservation on such a scale."

The main business of the conference will be the world's business--what can be done to improve the general economy (see box). But, potentially, the touchiest issue the conference will discuss is nuclear proliferation. The U.S. and Germany seem to be on a collision course. The Carter Administration takes the position that nuclear technology should not be spread if it will permit other nations to produce atomic bombs. By remaining the world's chief supplier of nuclear materials, the U.S. is able to keep some control over proliferation. West Germany, on the other hand, argues that if the nuclear have-nots fail to acquire technology from the West, they may turn to the Soviet Union and pay a high political price. It makes more sense, Bonn maintains, to seek tighter international controls than to rely on unilateral bans.

The argument was heightened just before the summit, when Carter proposed new legislation to restrict even further the overseas sale of nuclear power plants and fuel. His plan would require presidential approval for the export of more than 33 Ibs. of highly enriched uranium--the amount usually needed to make a bomb. White House permission would also be necessary before the Government's Nuclear Regulatory Commission could approve any new fuel export licenses. The Administration carefully pointed out that the legislation was not aimed at any individual nation. West Germany hardly felt reassured; Chancellor Schmidt announced last week that his government would embark on a four-year, $2.7 billion research program to advance its nuclear technology. Schmidt made no bones about the fact that whatever Carter's restrictions, West Germany intends to continue sales of nuclear materials abroad.

The issue of weapons sales will also be raised by Carter, who considers the practice a threat to world stability. He will urge other nations to put some kind of ceiling on arms exports. The U.S. plans to maintain its current annual $10 billion in weapons sales and not cut back shipments to its allies. But the U.S. will limit shipments to volatile parts of the world--for example, the Middle East. Although the precise levels have not yet been set, an official who helped draft the arms policy says that "the ceilings will be quite realistic--nothing wild or startling." The U.S. will also stop selling such "brutalizing" weapons as napalm and cluster-bomb units.

Not strictly on the agenda, the Middle East stalemate will be cautiously approached at the summit since little can be done until there is some decision on Palestinian representation at the proposed Geneva Conference (see THE WORLD). Carter plans to make a one-day side trip to Geneva to talk to Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad, but the meeting is mainly planned to allow the two men to get acquainted.

The discussion of East-West relations may be somewhat more encouraging. Last week the U.S. and Russia announced that they would resume working-level negotiations on SALT I early this month. Late in May, high-level talks are expected to start again. The announcement seemed to confirm Carter's claim that the quick adjournment of the SALT talks in March was not as calamitous as many observers made it out to be. Basically, there are no differences between the Europeans and Carter on the need to make detente into a two-way exchange, with benefits for both East and West. The President, however, will probably be questioned about his highly moralistic stand on human rights. The Europeans do not disagree with his position but wonder why he keeps taking it so often and so publicly when it obviously riles the Soviets without gaining any advantage in return.

The summit will take place in quarters fit for kings. Prime Minister James Callaghan refurbished the second-floor dining room at 10 Downing Street at a cost of $73,000. Air conditioning was installed and six temporary translation booths set up. The men will negotiate in a realm of gold--gold carpet, gold brocade draperies, gold-framed portraits of Lord Nelson and William Pitt gazing imperiously down on more circumscribed statesmen.

During the talks Carter will have at his side only Secretary of State Cyrus Vance and Treasury Secretary Michael Blumenthal; the other leaders will also be limited to their foreign and finance ministers. Other aides, including National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, will wait in an adjoining room. When the particular expertise of one of them is needed, the head of state will push a button by his chair. A red light will flash in the subordinates' area on a board numbered 1 through 8, indicating which leader needs assistance.*

Carter's preparations have been extensive. Convinced that every problem can be made "manageable" with sufficient homework, he set aside ample time to get ready for the conference. Fresh from a two-month speed-reading course, he whizzed through a thick CIA report on the economic outlook for 24 non-Communist industrial nations; it predicts an average annual 4% economic-growth rate along with an 8% consumer-price rise in 1977. Carter also read specially prepared biographies of the leaders he is about to meet, plus summaries of the 1975 summit at Rambouillet, France, and the 1976 sequel in Puerto Rico. Over the weekend at Camp David, he digested two briefing books assembled by Brzezinski with help from the State, Treasury and Defense departments and Special Trade Negotiator Robert Strauss. One book dealt with the Downing Street conference, the other with the NATO summit, which Carter will also attend in London. "What he likes," says Brzezinski, "is a combination of detailed information and a large overview. He is a very quick study and has a photographic memory. He doesn't like to have a fat notebook with him when he sits down at the meetings with other world leaders. It's a point of pride with him."

Low Hopes. Homework aside, Carter ran the risk of irritating his fellow heads of state when he granted interviews to a flock of European publications--all to be released just before he arrives in London. Earlier he had informed Prime Minister Callaghan that he would like to make an excursion to Poet Dylan Thomas' birthplace in Wales. The request was made without considering the fact that Britain is trying to moderate Welsh nationalist demands. Callaghan suggested a visit instead to the ancestral home of George Washington near the coal town of Newcastle-upon-Tyne. The Prime Minister felt that taking the President on a tour of the Labor stronghold would be a political coup that would help his hard-pressed party.

Carter quickly and gracefully accepted the invitation, and the British swung into action to prepare for the four-hour presidential tour. At a cost of $15,000, 44 rooms and the top two floors in the only hotel near the Washington house were requisitioned. Radio equipment was flown in, and 30 extra telephone lines were installed. To make sure that Callaghan and Carter would be able to take an unmolested stroll, Scotland Yard and the Secret Service combined forces to survey every inch of the route.

The history of summit conferences makes depressing reading. High hopes tend to be followed by inevitable letdowns. This week's reduced expectations at least forestall disappointment.

*The eighth negotiator will be Britain's Roy Jenkins, President of the European Commission, which administers the Common Market.

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