How to Avoid Future Shokkus

When Jimmy Carter first visited Tokyo in 1975, he was largely ignored by the Japanese. After all, even though he was a member of the prestigious Trilateral Commission, who really cared about a Georgia peanut farmer with the crazy ambition of running for President? One man who cared enough at least to chat informally with the virtually unknown American was Takeo Fukuda, at the time Japan's Deputy Premier. Carter is not one to forget; on Inauguration Day, his first call to a foreign leader was to Fukuda, who by then had become Japan's Premier.

The acquaintance will be renewed this week as Fukuda arrives in Washington. The timing of the talks--which are expected to be low-keyed and general--could hardly be more appropriate. The Administration is mildly worried about its accumulated trade deficit with Japan ($5.4 billion last year) and shares the concern of U.S. businessmen who feel they are unfairly frozen out of Japanese markets. Washington would like Fukuda's government to encourage "voluntary" reductions of exports to the U.S.--and to act on complaints about the dumping of underpriced goods in the U.S., notably autos, color televisions and other electronic products.

Undue Concentration. For his part, Fukuda seeks Carter's assurance that the U.S. will maintain a strong military presence in the western Pacific. "Almost all Asian leaders," Fukuda told TIME Tokyo Bureau Chief William Stewart, "will be disturbed if the U.S. disrupts the basic tenor of its Asian policy. They have asked me to convey their concern." Fukuda is especially chary of "any disruption of the delicate balance offerees on the Korean peninsula. I plan to advise President Carter very strongly about this."

Equally important, he wants a commitment from the U.S. that it will sell energy-poor Japan, which imports virtually all its oil, the know-how for building a much needed nuclear reprocessing plant 80 miles north of Tokyo. Despite Carter's concern about nuclear proliferation, Japanese officials believe it is grossly unfair for the Administration to lump Japan, which signed the nonproliferation treaty, with Brazil, which did not.

Fukuda is aware of the need to make concessions. As he told Stewart, color-television sets, steel, automobiles and ships "account for a major portion of our export trade, so much so that we are advising [the manufacturers] to avoid undue concentration [on specific markets]." Fukuda also warned against restrictive measures like last week's recommendation by the U.S. International Trade Commission that tariffs on imported television sets be increased from 5% to 25% over the next two years (see ECONOMY & BUSINESS).

"Inevitably there is a tendency toward protectionism," he told TIME. "If this happens, the world will sink into a serious depression." As for the U.S. deficit, the Premier argued that "we must look at the trade balance for a longer period of time--say, over several years." Fukuda rejects widespread plaints that the yen is deliberately undervalued to encourage exports. "Since the yen was floated, there has been no intervention [to keep it from appreciating]. We leave the value of the yen strictly to market forces."

Delicate Balance. Determined to avoid the shokku and the misunderstandings with Japan that marked Nixon's presidency, the Administration will take a soft, slow approach to mutual problems. "We're interested in negotiation, not coercion," says a State Department official. The White House would no doubt regard the summit as a success if Fukuda agreed to work on multilateral trade negotiations aimed at cutting Japan's overall world trade surplus of $9.5 billion and opening up Japanese markets for increased exports from the U.S. In answer, Fukuda will probably point out that Japan has lifted most tariffs and import quotas. It has also made it easier for foreign firms to invest in Japan and for certain imports, such as computers, to penetrate the Japanese market.

Fukuda wants the U.S. to help maintain the diplomatic status quo in the Pacific. Fukuda's quest for stability reflects in part his fear that any shift in the Asian power alignment or in Japan's economic underpinning might rip apart his Liberal Democratic Party, which lost its majority in the lower house of the Diet in December's election. Supported by independent conservatives, Fukuda then was chosen as Premier to succeed Takeo Miki, Japan's ill-fated "Mr. Clean" who resigned in the wake of that defeat.

The son and grandson of farmers from Gumma prefecture northwest of Tokyo, Fukuda for years was known as the "crown prince" of the Liberal Democrats. Nimble of mind, he is conservative both in life-style and policies -- hence his concern to maintain Japan's traditional close ties with the U.S. But many voters are tired of Establishment politics and unhappy about a galloping 10%-a-year inflation rate. Polls indicate that Fukuda's government is supported by only 33.5% of the populace--one of the lowest ratings ever given a new administration. Thus the Premier knows well that any rebuff from Washington could not only lead to further infighting within his divided party, but also might jeopardize his own hold on a job that he sought for so long, and is just beginning to enjoy.

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