Arab Accord and Israeli Acrobatics

An unexpected political event in Egypt last week increased the prospects for new moves toward peace in the Middle East in 1977. An equally unexpected political event in Israel guaranteed that any such moves would not take place for quite a while. Items:

> In Cairo, after a four-day summit, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Syrian President Hafez Assad formally ended their year-long feud by announcing not only their reconciliation but also the creation of machinery for a closer alliance of their two states. No one seriously expects a return to the kind of Syrian-Egyptian union that blossomed and then failed in Gamal Abdel Nasser's day. Instead, observers interpreted the two leaders' reference to "unionist relations" to mean that they were coordinating their diplomatic drive to force Israel to the Geneva conference table early in the coming year.

> In Jerusalem, Yitzhak Rabin threw his country into political turmoil by resigning as Israel's Premier, after first having expelled the three members of the National Religious Party from his insecure coalition Cabinet. Rabin presumably will stay on as Premier until the next elections, which will take place some time in the spring, instead of November as scheduled. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy angrily accused Rabin of "Israeli acrobatics"--but the Arabs know full well that there can be no serious negotiations until Israel's political crisis is untangled.

Rabin's resignation was triggered by a most unlikely incident. On Friday afternoon, Dec. 10, welcoming ceremonies had been scheduled at an airport near Tel Aviv for the arrival of the first three of 25 American F-15 Eagle fighters that Israel has on order (U.S. officials later indicated that the day and timing had been set by Rabin). The arrangements outraged leaders of Israel's religious parties, since the ceremony ran so close to the Sabbath sundown that it violated the spirit of the approaching holy day. Only 20% of Israeli Jews are strictly observant, but the religious parties that represent them are a potent factor in the nation's politics. The largest of the groups, the National Religious Party, has been included in almost every Labor government coalition since 1948. Four days after the ceremonies, Rabin's government narrowly survived a vote of censure instigated by the tiny Aguda Israel Party, another religious group; instead of supporting the government, the ten N.R.P. members in the Knesset, including two of its three Cabinet members, abstained. Infuriated by this act of disloyalty, Rabin read their party out of the parliamentary coalition and fired the three ministers from the Cabinet. The loss of the ten N.R.P. votes left Rabin's coalition with only 57 seats in the Knesset, four short of a majority. With defeat for the government on key votes now inevitable, the Premier then tendered his resignation.

A few hours later, Rabin flew to Rosh Pina in northern Israel to make what had become, in effect, the opening stump speech in his campaign for reelection. In flight, he discussed his decisions with TIME's David Halevy, who has known Rabin since 1968. "I have fulfilled my duty as Premier," he told Halevy. "Believe me, the actions taken by the N.R.P. ministers would have interfered with Israel's democratic system. It was my duty, therefore, to ask for their resignations. Democracy is more important than one officeholder."

What Happens Now? "I did not start all this," Rabin insisted. "I did not want to dissolve the Knesset and call early elections. General elections are not some kind of sports event; you don't play around with them." The Premier accused the Religious Party ministers of not adhering to "the basic principle of collective Cabinet responsibility, which is fundamental to our constitutional law. They had undermined my ability to maintain a coalition and a working Cabinet. Now that the action has been taken, I am at peace with myself. What happens now?" Rabin asked rhetorically. "As far as relations with the outside world are concerned, our efforts will not stop. Ministers come and go. But we won't leave the floor to the Arabs."

Israelis were divided in their opinions as to whether Rabin's move was clever tactics or inept strategy. An intense, introspective man, Rabin has been increasingly unhappy about the smallness of his majority in the Knesset. After nearly three years in office, he is also weary of constant criticism from his fellow Israelis--both in and out of the government. During his tenure, Israel's inflation has risen to a rate of 37%, unemployment is approaching 5% and money is tight. While Assad and Sadat have captured world headlines with talk of a peace offensive, Rabin has been attacked at home for being timid and indecisive.

President Ephraim Katzir will almost certainly ask Rabin to continue as head of a caretaker government, but as former Foreign Minister Abba Eban observed: "He can explore and discuss but he cannot make any commitments." Thus the Israelis will not be ready to talk peace until at least May, when the elections will probably take place. Before that, beginning in February, there will be heated local elections for delegates to party conventions; after this comes the selection of party candidates to run for general election. Under Israeli law, voters choose party slates instead of individual candidates. The parties then divide up the seats in the 120-member Knesset based on the percentage of their vote totals.

Other Contenders. Rabin, 54, intends of course to head the Labor Party slate once again. Considering his government's unimpressive domestic performance, he is likely to wage a campaign based on his record on national security issues. He faces strong competition. Rabin's most potent opponent is Defense Minister Shimon Peres, 53, a cool, cerebral politician who narrowly lost out to the Premier in a party caucus vote 32 months ago. A close friend of Moshe Dayan's, Peres has a strong following among younger Labor Party workers, who like his hawkish but pragmatic approach to relations with the Arabs. There are plenty of other contenders. War Hero Ariel Sharon, 48, who stormed the Suez Canal in the October War, plans to run as the candidate of his own party. Yigael Yadin, 59, another former general and distinguished archaeologist (the Dead Sea Scrolls) has already announced his candidacy--and has drawn surprisingly favorable response in voter polls. A likely third new candidate is Eban, 60, who, after a discreet interval outside politics, has all but decided to run without Labor Party blessing. Even Menachem Begin, 63, who heads the Knesset's conservative opposition, is a possibility. After Rabin announced his resignation last week, Begin rose in parliament to demand that others be offered the chance to form a new government.

Although angered by Rabin's move and suspicious of his motives, the Egyptians at least could see the bright side of things. As one government official put it, "An election could offer a clear mandate to the next Israeli government. It could then negotiate meaningfully, without offering the excuse that it had to go back and consult the electorate."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.