The Dole Decision

In his selection of Robert Dole as his running mate, Gerald Ford accomplished a tour de force of political theater: he surprised almost everyone (Dole included), and offended almost no one in the party's mainstream. Liberals in general and some moderate Republicans were disappointed by the choice. But even they acknowledged that Ford's problem was choosing someone who would appease the Reaganites without blatantly antagonizing other Republicans. Thus, once Ford unveiled his choice, politicos who only hours before had been touting "short lists" on which Dole's name did not even appear, began ticking off reasons why he made sense for the No. 2 spot.

It was exactly the sort of move with which the President was hoping to cap his nomination, and he prepared for it with a deft combination of openness and secrecy: he was demonstrably open to advice, but extremely secretive about his thinking as it evolved. As a Ford aide put it, in splendidly technocratic jargon: "His decision-making process was one of maximum input, zero feedback."

The input was massive indeed. Virtually everyone on a political visit to the White House in recent months, or to the "Oval Office West" in Kansas City last week, had a plug or a blackball for some prospect. Ford's floor manager in Kansas City, Michigan Senator Robert Griffin, promoted Colleague Howard Baker (who, perhaps coincidentally, may be Griffin's chief competition for the Senate minority leader's job next January). The First Family had its preferences too. Betty Ford urged more than token consideration for Anne Armstrong; Son Jack liked a mayor, Pete Wilson of San Diego, and two Governors, Christopher ("Kit") Bond of Missouri and Dan Evans of Washington. Henry Kissinger promoted a lame-duck incumbent, his former mentor Nelson Rockefeller. Of the Cabinet members, only Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz recommended Dole highly--because of the Kansan's popularity in the farm belt.

Three weeks ago, Ford sent letters soliciting the opinions of nearly 6,000 G.O.P. delegates, party leaders and officeholders. A week later, two dozen fatter letters went out from the White House with detailed legal, medical and financial questionnaires to an array of possibilities, ranging from Northeastern Liberal Elliot Richardson to Texas Conservative John Connally. The two dozen receiving the bulky envelopes were officially under presidential consideration.

Throughout the selection process,

Ford was noncommittal. Pressure, such as that mounted by the anti-Connally movement, he ignored or rebuffed. Says White House Special Counsel Michael Duval: "The President doesn't like to be pushed. He reminds me of a gyroscope: if you whack it, it will come right back, but if you move it steadily in a direction that makes sense, it will stay."

Ford came to Kansas City with a list in mind--but not on paper--of about a dozen "semifinalists." Even after this nomination was in hand, Ford still seemed to be considering at least half a dozen candidates. These he sounded out with Reagan, who commented favorably on Dole and said William Ruckelshaus and Richardson were completely unacceptable. Said a Reagan associate: "If either of them had been chosen, we would have unleashed our troops." Ford also talked about his list with nine top advisers over coffee and nightcaps in his hotel suite until shortly after 5 a.m. the night of his nomination. The nine: Griffin, Rockefeller, White House Chief of Staff Richard Cheney, Texas Senator John Tower, Campaign Pollster Robert Teeter, Campaign Strategist Stuart Spencer, Counsellor John Marsh, former Defense Secretary Melvin Laird and Veteran G.O.P. Presidential Adviser Bryce Harlow. When the consultants adjourned, exhausted, they were still uncertain whether the President had made up his mind. Not until they reconvened four hours later did Ford's final choice emerge, and then only obliquely: in his questions, the President kept coming back to Dole.

According to a White House official, Dole was Ford's "first expressed as well as final choice," though some advisers may have erroneously thought that their preferences were at the top of the list. For instance, Griffin apparently believed that Baker was Ford's choice. But the President wanted a more slashing, hard-driving campaigner than Baker. Ford also concluded that Dole had the most assets of all the possible choices, even though advisers pointed out that the poignant circumstances of Dole's first marriage and divorce might be as much of a liability as the drinking problem of Baker's wife. After an hour, Ford was satisfied that Dole had a consensus of support in the group, and the decision was final. The first to be told of the choice--after Dole --was Reagan. Ford began zeroing in on Dole the week before the convention, but the only Administration insider who had a sense of how he was narrowing the field was Chief of Staff Cheney, his sole confidant on the decision. The tabulations of the partywide popularity contest showed a cluster of obvious names near the top--Connally, Reagan, Baker, Richardson, Rockefeller--but no overwhelming standout whom the President could reject only at the risk of antagonizing the party.

In the end, according to advisers who participated in the final stages of the selection process, Ford was persuaded by these considerations:

-- Like Reagan, Dole is a conservative, but unlike Reagan, he is palatable to party moderates.

-- Like Connally, he is a forceful campaigner, but unlike Connally, he is a longtime party stalwart apparently untainted by scandal.

-- As a Midwesterner and a magnet for the farm vote, he can, Ford hopes, solidify the ticket's strength in those parts of the country where it stands the best chance. He may even be able to make inroads in the rural South.

^ As a former party chairman, Dole won the gratitude of a broad spectrum of Republicans and has the support of the party machinery.

In the opinion of one man who was at the final meeting on the selection last Thursday morning, Ford also liked the idea that Dole was something of a dark horse. "You remember how the President used to talk about wanting to feel 'comfortable' with his 'guys,' his 'team'?" commented a close associate. "Well, in the final analysis, he just felt more comfortable with Bob Dole than with the others. Two years ago, when called upon to appoint a Vice President, his personal choice was Don Rumsfeld; his choice for the sake of the party was George Bush; but Rocky was the best man to bring the country together behind him. This time around he figures he's got all three in one." That remains to be seen. But at the very least, Ford is now in personal command of the party and its ticket.

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