Waiting for a Lebanese Godot

So involved has Lebanon's civil war become after 15 months that the latest ceasefire, announced last week, is not even between Lebanese. Rather, Syria and the Palestine Liberation Organization, each battling in support of opposing local forces, agreed to stop fighting. Their agreement was tenuous, especially since it very obviously favored the stronger Syrians.

TIME Jerusalem Bureau Chief Donald Neff, supplementing his contacts in Israel with interviews in Washington, cabled this Middle East estimate:

All the warring parties--the Palestinians, the Arab Moslems and Christians, the Syrians--remain too strong and see the stakes too high to end the struggle soon. Top diplomats expect no significant changes in the Middle East in the near future. Progress is stalled not because of the U.S. elections (for once) but because of the turmoil in the Arab world over Lebanon. Before the civil war, there seemed a chance, however slight, that Henry Kissinger could follow up last September's successful Sinai interim agreement between Israel and Egypt with a peace-seeking shuttle between Israel and Syria. But when Lebanon blew up, so did opportunities for further step-by-step diplomacy.

For better or worse, Kissinger's diplomacy since the 1973 war has left the Soviet Union with little influence in Egypt. Even Moscow's strong position in Syria is waning because the Soviets have sided increasingly with the more radical Palestinians and leftists against Damascus. Says a U.S. official: "Russia is out of the picture."

But so, in a way, is the U.S. While Washington waits for a Lebanese solution to arrive, like some Arabic Godot, it cannot use its unique position to broker peace. Jerusalem is in no mood to negotiate now, with the Syrians trying to snap a leash in Lebanon on Israel's old enemies, the Palestinians. Initially, Jerusalem worried that Syria would use its involvement in Lebanon as a pretext to take over the country or to launch a surprise attack against Israel. But last spring, after Syria gave private assurances to the U.S. that its intervention in Lebanon was not aimed at Israel, Jerusalem relaxed and began to enjoy the situation. Israeli officials now quietly applaud Syrian President Hafez Assad's aims in Lebanon as modest and constructive; a year ago he was routinely described in Israel as a fanatical foe.

Losing Strength. In recent months, Syria's 15,000 troops in Lebanon have helped bring the P.L.O.--Moslems largely, but not completely--under control. Libya has desperately tried to help the Palestinians, pouring as much as $50 million into P.L.O. coffers in one month. Iraq and Egypt have given verbal support to the besieged leftists, but few arms have been getting through because of a Syrian naval blockade that is occasionally supported by Israeli ships. So weak has the P.L.O. now become that when the U.S. admitted that it had direct contacts with the P.L.O. (in order to secure the safety of Americans being evacuated from Beirut as well as the protection of the 15 embassy staff members remaining in the city), Jerusalem barely cared. Said an Israeli official: "The P.L.O. is losing strength, and we think it unlikely that the U.S. is going to give official recognition to an organization that is becoming less and less important."

If Syria has its way and achieves real control over the Palestinians, the prospects for an overall settlement between Israel and the Arabs could improve dramatically:

> The long-stalled Geneva talks could be resumed without the stumbling block of the P.L.O.'s presence, which Israel adamantly opposes.

> King Hussein of Jordan could again be free to represent the occupied West Bank, in place of the P.L.O., thus making possible a West Bank-Jordanian confederation or an independent West Bank governed by local leaders--solutions that are acceptable to Israel.

> Finally, Syria's victory in Lebanon could make Assad more moderate, yet strong enough among his Arab critics to agree to a settlement with Israel.

All this may be wishful thinking on the part of Jerusalem and Washington. Certainly much could happen that would suddenly bring greater dangers to the region. Assad could be deposed, and the Palestinians could begin winning, though both events seem unlikely now. In the Middle East, the unexpected--like Syrians fighting Palestinians--is routine. By that somber measure, the region has never been more normal.

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