More Upsets in a Volatile Spring

According to all the expert predictions, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan will battle right down to the wire. The California challenger stands to win six or seven of the nine primaries this week and next. Then on June 8, the President should easily take Ohio and New Jersey, but the big leap probably will be made that day by the winner in California, where former Governor Reagan lately has moved ahead. On the Democratic side, Jimmy Carter should win three or four of this week's primaries, then run behind Governor Jerry Brown in California but do well in Ohio and New Jersey. Adding it up, Carter should go into the July convention with more than 1,000 delegates.

Trouble is, all that is the script as seen by politicians, pollsters and pundits, and throughout this volatile spring, the American voter has been upsetting many an expert forecast. Skeptical, grousing and defiantly refusing to be shoved into anyone's political pocket, the voter is giving the pollsters an unusual drubbing. It is as if the voters are saying perversely: "O.K., wise guys, you think you've got me pegged? Well, you're wrong."

That was never more true than last week. Ford's closest aides were dreadfully afraid that he would lose his home state of Michigan, and his own polls showed him only narrowly ahead. But the President revived his campaign with a resounding 2-to-1 win. In one race that did go according to forecast, he carried Maryland by 16 percentage points. The polls also showed a confident Carter to be leagues ahead of Morris Udall in Michigan and in front of Brown in Maryland. Instead, the Georgian beat Udall by only a whisker and lost to Brown by twelve percentage points.

The picture:

THE REPUBLICANS. In Michigan, Ford's fear of Wallace cross-over voters proved groundless. More than 400,000 Democrats and independents apparently did jump into the more exciting Republican contest--but they voted overwhelmingly for Ford. Doing so, they also deprived Carter of much support he might have had. Why did they do it? At least one motive was explained by Detroit Public Relations Counselor James P. Chapman, who supports Carter but voted for Ford: "Reagan's right-wing aggressiveness scares the hell out of me. If he gets the nomination, there's always a chance he can be elected."

The recently more "presidential" Ford seems to be gaining on the issues. He is stressing his peace-and-prosperity record instead of responding to Reagan's diversionary attacks. Reagan's assaults on Henry Kissinger were blunted by the Secretary of State's confirmation in two television interviews that he would prefer not to stay on, even if Ford is elected.

Yet Ford could be faulted for delaying until late last week final action on re-creating the Federal Election Commission--a move that had stalled the campaign funds that are overdue to Reagan. Moreover, at least the timing of an announcement that the Justice Department may try to limit court-ordered busing could be questioned as an effort to help Ford in some remaining primary fights. With considerable justification, N.A.A.C.P. Executive Director Roy Wilkins asked pointedly: "Why now? Why now?"

Though the Michigan and Maryland victories reassured Ford and his aides, they were far from euphoric about the future. Said one: "We don't have any illusions. We recognize what's ahead, and frankly, the numbers are tough." Even after Michigan and Maryland, Reagan still led Ford in committed delegates 516 to 475 (needed to nominate: 1,130).

After four private conversations in which they discussed the Reagan delegate advantage, Ford and Vice President Nelson Rockefeller plotted a dramatic countermove. To slow any rush of uncommitted delegates to Reagan, Rocky agreed to throw as much of the big New York delegation as he could behind Ford now--rather than wait until the August convention, when it might be too late. The 154 New York delegates were to meet this week, and at least 120 were expected to announce for Ford. Late last week, 88 out of Pennsylvania's 103 uncommitted delegates voted to support Ford. That put the President ahead of Reagan in the total delegate count, 563 to 525.

The President needed that lift because the fight now moves mostly to Reagan's friendly Southern and Western turf. Of this week's six primaries (Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas) and next week's trio (Montana, Rhode Island and South Dakota), Ford was a favorite only in Oregon and Rhode Island. With the delegate count so close, the final "Super Bowl" day of primaries in California, New Jersey and Ohio on June 8 could be decisive.

THE DEMOCRATS. "Get Carter" is not only the name of a movie but the rallying cry of a host of rivals who sense that he is vulnerable. In the past two weeks he has beaten Udall by 2% in Connecticut and .3% in Michigan, lost a squeaker to Frank Church in Nebraska, and has been clobbered by Brown in Maryland. This week Californian Brown is favored to win neighboring Nevada, and Church to carry his native Idaho. But Carter is working hard at holding his edge in Oregon and is a safe bet in Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. Carter is still the odds-on favorite for the nomination, but as Laurence Radway, Democratic party chairman in New Hampshire, observed: "I watch his face, and it's obvious that his smile is a little more forced than it was before."

His down-in-the-mouth rivals, on the other hand, were beginning to smile again--if a little weakly. Two of Hubert Humphrey's never-say-die supporters--Illinois Congressman Paul Simon and New York's Erie County (Buffalo) Democratic chief Joseph Crangle--announced a drive to corral uncommitted delegates and money for him. Said Simon: "There are times when the office must seek the candidate."

Udall demonstrated in Michigan that he cannot be taken for granted; he keeps on coming. Brown showed in Maryland that he can have wide appeal. He won Scoop Jackson's lunch-bucket crowd, Mo Udall's suburban Volvo votaries, and cut deeply into Carter's ghetto constituency; Catholics also flocked to the former Jesuit seminarian.

Brown gave the impression of being even more of an anti-Establishment candidate than Carter and was fuzzier on the issues. Because of endorsements from Detroit Mayor Coleman Young, Henry Ford II and officers of the United Auto Workers, Carter was converted from outsider to insider. As a Detroit citizen explained, "I voted for Udall because I was trying to vote out anybody who is in." In San Clemente, even Richard Nixon got into the anti-Carter act. When Carter's name was mentioned, the former President reacted by throwing his head back and hamming it up with an exaggerated show of teeth.

Beauty Contest. But the stop-Carter drive has made only a modest start. Says a Democratic official in California: "What difference does it make if the train is going 30 m.p.h. instead of 60 when it runs over you? The results are the same." Carter's new math is intimidating. Through last week he had won 13 of the 19 primaries he entered and nearly 5 million votes--about four times the totals of Udall or Jackson. Even while losing the Maryland "beauty contest" to Brown, Carter picked up 32 of the state's delegates; he collected an additional 69 in Michigan. At week's end he had a total of 772 firm delegates, with 1,505 needed to nominate.

Carter operatives give the uncommitted delegates no rest. Either they or the boss are constantly on the phone to them. The candidate also paid a two-hour call on Senator Adlai Stevenson III, the Illinois favorite son who, along with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, controls 92 delegates. There has been talk of a Stevenson vice presidency. Though Stevenson, who has been reading everything about Carter that he can find, does not agree with the Georgian on every issue, he believes that "Carter is clearly in the ballpark."

Even if Carter can be stopped, the cost to the party might be prohibitive. Says Douglas Eraser, a vice president of the U.A.W. who has been backing Udall: "If Carter hits 1,000 delegates, the Democratic Convention can't give the nomination to someone who didn't even contest in the primaries. The people have been led to believe that they have been having a hand in picking the nominee. If they are told that all that went on didn't mean anything, the people just won't swallow that." Indeed, most of the South, resentful at the rejection of one of its own, might be swept away to the G.O.P. What Carter means to his region was demonstrated when Senator Bennett Johnston, a Louisiana Democrat, remarked: "I must say I look forward to the day when we will again have someone in the White House who doesn't speak with an accent."

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