All the Would-Be-Presidents' Men

A presidential candidate who expects to be taken seriously must convince voters that he has at least a plausible prescription for prosperity. So, no presidential campaign is complete these days without a network of economists to feed the candidate ideas on how to deal with unemployment, inflation and economic growth. The technical ability and political insights of these experts can make or break a campaign--as illustrated by George McGovern's 1972 economic program that turned into a vote-losing albatross. Moreover, the ideas of the economists who advise the eventual winner can shape the way Americans live and work for years after the election--especially if, as can happen, the candidate's campaign advisers become the policymakers of a new Administration.

The candidate best supplied, in quantity at least, with economic advice is, of course, President Ford, who can draw on the whole policymaking apparatus of the Government. Currently, Ford's aides are reporting that the recovery from recession is picking up enough speed to weaken what the Democrats had expected to be one of their strongest issues (see following story). Other candidates, lacking the power of the White House, must get their advice wherever they can find it--generally from economists at universities and research organizations who have time to ponder major public issues.

The candidates seek as broad a spectrum of advice as they can get and choose what they want or what they believe will sell. Frequently economists will advise more than one candidate--indeed, sometimes just about anybody who asks. For example, Robert Nathan, a private Washington consultant and member of TIME'S Board of Economists, considers himself a regular adviser to Hubert Humphrey, who might well emerge from a brokered convention with the Democratic nomination. But Nathan also has sent papers to at least two of Humphrey's actively campaigning rivals, Henry Jackson and Morris Udall. Says Nathan: "You help as many as you can."

At this stage of the campaign, most of the candidates are talking economic generalities rather than presenting detailed programs, and their economists are staying in the background. Hardly any have yet joined a candidate's staff full time. Instead, they offer their tutelage in a variety of ways: sometimes by frequent personal meetings with the candidate, often through staff members and sometimes only in an occasional phone conversation, memo or quick chat. Nonetheless, their views of the issues--and of the candidates--provide a preview of the fall debate and possibly even some intriguing hints of the economic tone, mood and direction of the next Administration. A brief rundown on the ideas of the leading candidates and the men behind them, starting with the Democrats:

JIMMY CARTER has said he would give priority to reducing the nation's unemployment rate "and take my chances on inflation." Many of Carter's ideas come from--or through--his chief adviser, Lawrence Klein, professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, a pioneer in using computer studies to forecast economic trends. Klein has put together one of the best-organized economic advisory groups of the campaign. It has recently completed work on a comprehensive economic program that Carter will announce this week. Among his other advisers are experts as diverse as Albert Sommers, chief economist of the Conference Board, a business research group, and Carolyn Shaw Bell, a strong advocate of greater progress for women. Also in Carter's advisory group: Lester Thurow, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a liberal who had a major hand in formulating McGovern's welfare proposals, and Martin Feldstein, of Harvard, who is sufficiently conservative to have been invited to join Ford's Council of Economic Advisers.

Klein says of Carter: "He is willing to accept good advice, makes sharp intuitive appraisals and picks up complicated economic ideas very fast." According to other aides, Carter is not content with oral briefings but insists that economic ideas be put on paper so that he can read them.

HENRY JACKSON, while calling for greater Government efforts to reduce unemployment, lower interest rates and curb inflation, has been trying hard to capture the middle ground. He has no single major economic adviser, but keeps in touch with a number of experts of widely varying persuasions. One is Henry Kaufman, a partner in the Wall Street firm of Salomon Bros., whose views are generally regarded as conservative. Kaufman reports that Jackson has "shown a willingness to try to understand the issues." The two do not always agree: Kaufman is exceedingly dubious about Jackson's advocacy of breaking up the major oil companies but says the Senator has not sought his views on that issue.

By contrast, Jackson also has listened to Kenneth J. Arrow, a Harvard professor and co-winner of the 1972 Nobel Prize in Economics. Arrow last year signed a declaration condemning capitalism for producing "primarily for corporate profit" and calling for a search for alternatives to prevailing Western economic systems.

MORRIS UDALL has argued for a more rapid expansion of money supply to keep interest rates low, Government action to cut unemployment and "effective price controls on key industries, such as steel, food, utilities and prescription drugs." Liberal Udall has tapped many sources for advice, including economists of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. But he especially respects the counsel of John Kenneth Galbraith, who has long contended that the concentration of economic power among the nation's major corporations is a prime source of inflation and argues for permanent price controls. To a considerable degree, though, Udall relies on his own knowledge. He has had a strong interest in economic issues for years, and according to his staff, his grasp of the subject is firm.

HUBERT HUMPHREY is co-author of the Humphrey-Hawkins bill, a measure aimed at cutting unemployment among adults to 3% within four years of enactment. It calls for, among other things, greater Government planning, increased revenue sharing for states and cities and expanded public service employment. Humphrey has a close and longstanding association with Walter Heller, head of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson and a member of TIME'S Board of Economists. Says Heller: "Hubert is still the quickest study in the business." Humphrey, whose thirst for new ideas is almost as insatiable as his need to talk, is in constant touch with other experts like Nathan.

RONALD REAGAN is pushing a strongly conservative line, concentrating on budget cutting, and has committed the only notable economic gaffe of the campaign so far: his proposal to turn over to states and cities Government social programs that currently cost $90 billion a year. His chief economic adviser is Martin Anderson, senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, who now works for Reagan full time. Anderson, who served as a special assistant to the President during the early Nixon years, describes himself as a "free-market economist." He is author of The Federal Bulldozer, a denunciation of urban renewal programs. Anderson is one of the few economists who still believe that a literally balanced federal budget is possible. Reagan has also sought advice from Murray Weidenbaum, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under Nixon, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists and a moderate who finds the difference between Ford and Reagan "modest" compared to any Democrat.

Of all the candidates, only George Wallace seems to get along without any regular economic advice. Staff assistants insist that Wallace does consult with economists but are unable to name any. Wallace once remarked: "I look around at all the other candidates who have these advisers advocating things that have brought us where we are. I think maybe I'll have a good truck driver, a good steelworker, a good little businessman and let them advise me." This unintellectual approach has failed. Wallace's campaign has stalled so badly that his days as a national power seem finished.

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