Mission Impossible

Project Independence, the grand scheme started by Richard Nixon in 1973 to free the U.S. from dependence on foreign producers of energy, may well be Mission Impossible. That is the inescapable conclusion of a new 500-page study by the Federal Energy Administration. Not that the FEA says so outright; the report, called The National Energy Outlook, soberly presents computer models of the different options facing the nation between now and 1985. But not one of the seven basic "alternative scenarios" offered would result in total independence from the oil-producing and -exporting countries.

The FEA'S key assumption is that the OPEC cartel will maintain high prices for oil (currently $11.56 per bbl.). Main reason: Saudi Arabia, Libya and Kuwait are cutting production rather than risk the falling prices that would accompany a global oil glut. Though the FEA study considers the theoretical impact of oil prices of $8 and $16 per bbl., it concentrates on the effects of an average price of $13 per bbl. At that level, no alternative sources of energy, not even such highly touted synthetic fuels as shale oil and liquefied coal, can compete with oil, at least not by 1985. So the question is how much foreign oil the nation will need, even after Alaskan oil starts flowing.

President's Program. FEA's report gives several possible answers. If President Ford gets his entire energy program through Congress, starting with decontrol of domestic oil and natural gas prices and leasing of offshore reserves, the nation could boost daily domestic production from 8.2 million bbl. now to 13.9 million bbl. in 1985. That, along with a surge in nuclear power plant construction and some much debated changes in environmental laws to allow more coal to be burned, would permit the U.S. to hold imports to the present level of 6 million bbl. a day.

Total imports in 1985 may conceivably drop to 1.7 million bbl. a day, provided that the U.S. enacts a strong energy conservation program in addition to following Ford's other legislative remedies. On the other hand, if Congress bucks the President's call for decontrolled prices and eased environmental laws, which seems likely, the nation can expect to import 11.3 million bbl. of oil a day in 1985. FEA's report attempts only to provide an objective basis for future energy decisions. Its figures nonetheless give a timely warning that in the foreseeable future there is no escape from OPEC oil.

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