Triple Trouble for a Beleaguered President

When President Ford returned from Asia last week, he invited G.O.P. congressional leaders to the White House for some early-morning coffee and firsthand reports on his travels. But the 22 top Republicans who gathered round the huge mahogany table in the Cabinet Room were not eager to hear about the President's chat with China's Mao Tse-tung (see story page 26). Nor was the Pacific Doctrine, which Ford enunciated in Hawaii, their main interest, even though it was a good restatement of U.S. policy and may well be helpful in reassuring Asian allies after the Viet Nam defeat. What was on the Republicans' minds was politics--domestic politics --and they were worried.

Ford's old congressional friends feared that the President was rapidly losing ground to Ronald Reagan in the race for the Republican nomination, and a Gallup poll released later in the week showed dramatically how right they were. The poll, taken in late November, reported that Reagan had actually passed Ford to become the favorite among Republican voters for the nomination by a margin of 40% to 32%. Just a month before, Ford had easily outdistanced Reagan, 48% to 25%. The independent vote had also swung to Reagan, giving him a 27%-to-25% edge over Ford, as opposed to the President's lead of 26% to 20% in mid-October. Reagan's strong showing might be explained by the fact that the poll was taken right after he announced his candidacy and shortly after Ford shook up his Cabinet, firing Defense Secretary James Schlesinger.

As Ford's camp quickly pointed out, leaders in December's polls do not always win nominations in the summer. Four years ago, for example, only 6% of Democratic voters backed George McGovern, yet the South Dakota Senator managed to win on the first ballot the following July. Still, Ford had the advantage of being a sitting President, and his poor showing in the poll startled his advisers. Said one White House aide: "If there's any apathy, that ought to end it."

To make matters worse, the President has managed to get himself into no-win situations with three major pieces of legislation that should soon be coming across his desk. No matter how he handles the bills, he is bound to offend a sizable portion of the American electorate. He also could give Reagan some tailor-made issues. The trio of bills:

ENERGY. To resolve a year-long stalemate with Congress over how to cope with the energy crisis, Federal Energy Administrator Frank Zarb actively intervened on the Hill to work out a compromise that would roll back the price of domestic crude oil by about 12%, then gradually phase out controls during the ensuing 40 months. Zarb estimated that the bill could cut the price of gasoline and fuel oil by as much as 2.5-c- per gal., then let it rise gradually.

But the oil industry, a traditional bastion of Republican strength, is bitterly opposed to the bill. Oilmen argue that a price cut in crude oil would reduce the incentive to drill wells in search of new sources of supply. Reagan has urged the President to veto the bill. At week's end Ford's closest advisers were still not certain whether the President would turn down the bill, thereby repudiating Zarb and angering millions of Americans who drive cars or heat their homes with oil. The odds that Congress would overturn a veto are too close to call.

LABOR. Ford has already committed himself to approve Labor Secretary John Dunlop's controversial "common situs" picketing bill, which would sharply increase the power of individual construction locals. Under the present law, a striking plumbers' local, say, cannot form a picket line to prevent carpenters or electricians or members of any other construction union from working on the same job. Dunlop's bill would permit such picketing.

Labor has long sought, and contractors have long fought, such a measure. But Dunlop was willing to approve common situs picketing in exchange for something he considered more important to the overall economy: a mechanism that would centralize the fragmented, localized bargaining structure in the building trades.

Though Dunlop's proposed Construction Industry Collective Bargaining Committee might well curb inflationary wage settlements, Reagan opposes the overall measure because of the picketing provisions. Howard ("Bo") Callaway, the President's campaign manager, has warned that signing the bill would hurt him "in every one of the 50 states." Ford is expected to veto the bill. Dunlop might then resign.

TAXES. By far the most pressing and vexing issue on the minds of the G.O.P. legislators who met with Ford is a bill calling for extension of the present income tax reductions, which were approved by Congress and the President last spring as a means of fighting the recession. On Oct. 6, Ford called for an increased tax cut amounting to roughly $28 billion over a full year. But he insisted that Congress reduce spending by the same amount. The Democrats refused to commit themselves to cuts in a budget that the President would not even submit until January. Ford vowed to his White House audience: "A tax cut coming down here without a spending ceiling will be vetoed."

If Ford does veto the bill, he will be serving notice just before Christmas that he will be taking money out of millions of Americans' paychecks. The Democrats may have enough votes to override the veto and take credit for being the proud parents of a tax cut.

Republicans and Democrats alike are puzzled that Ford, a creature of Congress, misjudged all three situations badly enough to paint himself into an uncomfortable corner with the election campaign drawing near. As Reagan's challenge grows steadily stronger, Ford cannot risk appearing to be indecisive.

"He's got to the point where he must draw some issues sharply," says one Republican Congressman who attended the White House session. "He's got to create an impression other than that of a nice guy holding the fort between Nixon and the next President."

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