Stalemate Now, Progress Later

During the long, U.S.-orchestrated negotiations that led to the new Sinai agreement between Israel and Egypt, the Soviet Union became, more and more conspicuously, the odd man out in Middle East diplomacy. Now Moscow wants back in. This was the most important message conveyed by Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko last week when he stopped off in Washington for two days of talks with President Ford and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger while enroute to the U.N. General Assembly. TIME Diplomatic Editor Jerrold L. Schecter assesses the Soviet Foreign Minister's Washington visit:

Moscow holds Kissinger and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat responsible for the humiliation the Soviets suffered in the Middle East. This was fully reflected in Gromyko's mood, which one U.S. official described as "disappointed and unhappy." The Russians are not in a very strong bargaining position in the Arab world at the moment. Not only have they lost their influence in Egypt, but they also do not have much clout in Syria, even though some 3,000 Soviet technicians remain there. Ironically, the Soviets seem to be turning to the U.S. for help in getting back on the Middle East diplomatic track.

Gromyko has indicated that his government wants the Geneva Conference to reconvene in November and to have an "ironclad guarantee" from the U.S. that Moscow will play a key role in any future talks between the Israelis and the Syrians. While any enduring Middle East settlement demands some Soviet participation, Washington may find itself in a dilemma if it enters into an agreement with the Soviets regarding Geneva. Reason: Israel would probably argue that such an agreement violates the recent understandings between Jerusalem and Washington in which the U.S. promised "not to join in efforts by others to bring about consideration of proposals which it and Israel agree are detrimental to the interests of Israel."

On the matter of food supplies, there is no disguising Moscow's need for U.S. aid. With this year's grain crop projected at 170 million metric tons--a full 20 million below Russia's needs--Moscow desperately wants to return to the U.S. market, where it has already purchased 10 million tons this year. But until mid-October, at least, all U.S. sales and shipments of grain to the Soviets have been frozen by Ford in response to arguments that massive grain purchases drive up U.S. food prices (TIME, Sept. 22).

Gromyko gave his blessing to the current U.S. effort to negotiate a long-term grain agreement that would end the Soviet practice of plunging disruptively into the U.S. market whenever Russia's own harvests run short. Moscow is, in fact, ready to sign an agreement to purchase between 5 million and 8 million tons of American grain annually over the next five years and allow much of it to be shipped in U.S. vessels at a favorable rate--$16 per ton instead of the current $9.50 per ton.

Brezhnev Visit. The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks are another area in which the U.S. enjoys some special leverage right now. While Washington wants to conclude a SALT II treaty before SALT I expires in late 1977, the Soviets face a more immediate deadline. Unless a SALT II is ready for signing, it seems unlikely that Soviet Party Boss Leonid Brezhnev will be welcome in Washington for a visit that is currently planned for later this year. Yet Brezhnev is known to want to burnish his image at a Washington summit before an important Soviet Party Congress scheduled for early 1976.

The SALT negotiations have bogged down, for example, over whether to include the Soviet's new Backfire bomber and the U.S. cruise missile under the ceilings agreed to by Ford and Brezhnev last November. Means of verifying compliance with the treaty also remain unresolved. Gromyko, however, offered no new Soviet SALT position last week. Despite the lack of momentum, U.S. officials remain cautiously hopeful for some further gains for Soviet-American detente. Said a top Kissinger aide: "It may look like a stalemate now, but as the end of the year approaches, we expect progress."

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