Earthshaking Forecast

On Feb. 4 seismographs all over the world recorded a major earthquake centered in densely populated Mukden, an industrial area of northeastern China. The temblor measured 7.4 on the Richter scale, severe enough to have caused extensive casualties and property damage.

As usual, Peking was tight-lipped about details. At first it acknowledged only that a severe earthquake had occurred. But last week Western scientists learned from a Chinese news broadcast monitored by the CIA that authorities had "mobilized the masses" before the disaster, a move that was "based on the earthquake forecasts and notices issued by our country's earthquake stations and posts." As a result, injuries were reduced "to a minimum, thereby demonstrating the unexcelled superiority of socialism."

Rhetoric aside, if the Chinese were able to predict the temblor--and they are known to have a network of earthquake data stations manned by 10,000 professionals--it was indeed a remarkable achievement. It would mark the first time that a major quake has been predicted and a population warned in time to take precautionary measures.

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