A Loss of Momentum

Diplomatic wags have dubbed it Henry Kissinger's reverse Middle East shuttle. Instead of commuting almost daily by air between Cairo, Jerusalem and Damascus, as he did earlier this year to work out an Arab-Israeli ceasefire, the Secretary of State has switched the procedure. Since July he has been standing still in Washington while a procession of Middle Eastern diplomats shuttles in to see him. So far, the roster has included Israeli Foreign Minister Yigal Allon, Prime Minister Zaid Rifai of Jordan, Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy of Egypt, Jordan's King Hussein, Foreign Ministers Abdel Halim Khaddam of Syria and Omar Saqqaf of Saudi Arabia. This week the latest shuttler, Israeli Premier Yitzhak Rabin, arrives to spend four days conferring with Kissinger and President Ford.

No Agreement. Like those who preceded him on the transatlantic shuttle, Rabin comes to Washington primarily to determine what can be done to restore momentum to Middle East peacemaking, which has sagged noticeably since Kissinger's earlier efforts. The estimate until recently was that the two sides might be able to meet in Geneva before year's end to conclude a peace pact. But nothing substantive has happened since May, when Syria and Israel agreed to disengagement on the Golan Heights. The revised estimate, as a result, is that it will be at least six months before any of the parties reach Geneva.

The problem is that none of the participants can agree on what the next step ought to be. Israel's willingness to negotiate is linked to U.S. assurances of continued military support, and one of Rabin's aims this week will be to pin down a long-term assistance program with large U.S. credits that may amount to $4.5 billion over a five-year period. The Israeli preference is to begin second-stage negotiations with Egypt's President Anwar Sadat, but not until Egypt demonstrates more willingness to make concessions. Israel feels that it received nothing in return for its withdrawal in Sinai last February. If there is no Egyptian give, Israel feels, the situation could deteriorate. Explained one Foreign Ministry official: "If they want no more war, then they have to give us something tangible for any further withdrawals." Among such tangibles might be an arrangement for direct tourist travel between the two countries or the passage of Israeli cargoes through the Suez Canal, which is expected to reopen in March.

The logical move, the Arabs feel, would be an agreement for Israel to disengage from Jordan. But a bitter controversy has broken out over who has the right to negotiate for the Palestinians on Jordan's occupied West Bank. At summit meetings in Algiers and Lahore most Arab leaders jointly decided that the militant Palestine Liberation Organization was the proper authority rather than King Hussein. But Sadat and Hussein later agreed that the King is "a legitimate spokesman" for the Palestinians. A compromise, which is expected to be ratified at an Arab summit called for Oct. 26 in Rabat, would let both Hussein and the P.L.O. speak for Jordan's Palestinians.

To demonstrate their opposition and show off their strength, Palestinian guerrillas have stepped up attacks on Israel not only from Lebanon and Syria but from the West Bank as well. In a series of raids carried out by the Popular Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine last week, four commandos and two Israeli soldiers were killed in firefights before the guerrillas were turned back. They had set out to capture Israeli hostages to be traded for prisoners in Israeli jails, including the Melchite Catholic Archbishop of Jerusalem, Hilarion Capucci (TIME, Sept. 2), who is to be tried for smuggling arms into Israel for the guerrillas.

Russian Resupply. Unless the current round robin of conferences--as well as another brief Kissinger visit to the Middle East, scheduled for early October--can find solutions, the Middle East will soon be faced with a crisis date. In November the initial six-month tour of United Nations peace-keeping forces on the Golan Heights expires.

Syria, which must approve any extension of the U.N. tour, has threatened not to do so unless Israel undertakes further withdrawal from captured territory.

Jerusalem gives no indication that it is willing to do that. In fact, it maintains that Syria is preparing for renewed war.

Not only is Damascus receiving large resupplies of Russian arms (an estimated $1 billion worth since the October war), the Israelis point out, but the French decision to end a seven-year arms embargo against Middle East combatants could mean that the French will sell to Syria and other countries equipment superior to Soviet technology, principally in defensive radar.

The region is not yet on a war footing. But unless someone can shuttle up fast ideas for keeping the peace momentum going, it could be before long.

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