Monday, Apr. 08, 1974
Some Winners from Inflation
Them that's got shall get, them that's not shall lose,
So the Bible says, and it still is news.
Mama may have, Papa may have,
But God bless the child that's got his own.
--An old Billie Holiday song
Especially his own real estate, oil wells, farm land, art collection, precious metals, gems, rare coins or antiques. Those articles are spiraling upward in value even more quickly than prices generally; for the people who own them, inflation has brought a bonanza of new wealth. A rundown on the inflation beaters' favorite investments:
LAND. Real estate speculation in areas of intense commercial development is yielding some of the largest inflation fortunes. Prime examples: land located along the proposed route of Atlanta's rapid transit system and near the mammoth Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. A Dallas real estate group recently sold for $45,000 a parcel of virgin land that it had bought only two months earlier for a mere $6,000. To a lesser extent, inflation also benefits the typical owner of a mortgaged home. Since the value of the dollars used to repay the debt is lessening, the mortgage is, in effect, becoming cheaper.
COLLECTIONS. Cashing in on an art or coin collection requires specialized knowledge and a hefty checkbook. But the rewards can be enormous. One Manhattan art fancier (or is it financier?) bought a painting by Pop Artist Robert Rauschenberg for only $900 in 1958 and resold it recently for $85,000--a return on the original investment of more than 9,300%. One expert estimates that a good coin collection has appreciated in value by 75% annually for the last few years. Last summer Cleveland Coin Dealer Alan Yale, an ex-stockbroker, bought Mexican gold 50-peso pieces for $173 each; today they are selling for $241 each. Even collectors of the cheapest U.S. coin may soon be able to turn a profit. If the price of copper reaches $1.51 per Ib. (it is now more than $1.43), the metal in pennies will be worth more than the coins themselves.
COMMODITIES. Last year the hottest items were soybeans and wheat; this year the fastest action is in sugar and metals. On the Chicago Board of Trade, Dealer Larry Blum says, "silver was going up in a day as much as it ordinarily does in a year." The biggest silver speculator is Dallas Centimillionaire Nelson Bunker Hunt, who has used his petro-wealth to buy millions of dollars worth of future contracts for silver. Unlike most commodities gamblers, Hunt has accepted delivery on some of the metal, which he apparently intends to hoard until the price goes higher.
CROPS. Even some farmers are speculating in a way. Last year Illinois Farmer Elliott Y. Johnson, 51, earned 50% more than in 1972 because the price of the produce he sold more than doubled. Soybeans, for example, rose to $8.60 per bu., from $3.65. Johnson held back more than half his harvest for sale this year, when prices could go still higher. Meanwhile, he plans to buy a new $19,000 tractor and make expensive improvements on his grain elevator. "Now," Johnson chuckles, "is a real good tune for a farmer to be paying off his debts."
PETROLEUM. Steadily rising prices for petroleum products ensure that owners of drilling rights will make a killing. Although the Government controls the price of most oil, two important categories are exempt from regulation: "new" crude (the amount a well produces in excess of what it pumped during the corresponding period in 1972) and oil from "stripper" wells that produce 10 bbl. a day or less. Stripper oil is selling for as much as $10 per bbl., enabling the owner of a well that produces 5 bbl. daily to turn a profit from a property that a year ago would have been shut down as uneconomic.
For the moment, investments in these inflation-beating areas look secure. But there is no guarantee that the heady returns will continue. A sudden drop in demand for a product could send its price plummeting. Already silver and sugar prices have backed down from highs reached earlier this year. And land, metals, paintings and coins have one huge disadvantage as investments: once they pass their price peaks, they are much harder to unload quickly than stocks or bonds.
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