The Limits to Martial Law

When Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos imposed martial law 17 months ago, one of his major justifications was that only drastic measures could crush the insurrections that were plaguing the islands. Since then he has suppressed all political opposition, imposed strict press censorship and outlawed private possession of guns. Yet violent opposition to his regime has not only continued but burgeoned.

Moslem insurgents in the southwestern Sulu Archipelago, where the population is 95% Moslem, have recently mounted their largest attacks ever against the Manila government. Early last month the insurgents occupied the towns of Parang and Maimbung on Jolo Island. Then at dawn two weeks ago several hundred Moslem guerrillas infiltrated Jolo city, the island's chief town, while more than 1,500 attacked from outside. Taking government forces by surprise, they quickly overran the airport, occupied the headquarters of the 1st Army Brigade, and captured nearby Notre Dame College. The government counterattacked with more than 5,000 troops and ordered the city --whose population had been swollen to 80,000 by refugees--to be strafed by F-86 Sabre jets and bombarded by gunboats in the Sulu Sea and army units using mortars and 105-mm. howitzers.

After 20 hours of fighting, the rebels retreated. In their wake they left hundreds dead; the central marketplace, the Roman Catholic Cathedral and more than half of the town were in smoldering ruins. More than 25,000 refugees were without shelter, water and rice; another 35,000 fled by boat to Zamboanga on Mindanao--an island that itself is racked with Moslem insurgency.

For more than 400 years, the Moslems in the southern Philippines, who now number about 2.5 million, have resisted attempts by the country's predominantly Christian administration to govern them. In recent years they have violently opposed Manila's policy of encouraging Christian settlers to migrate south and buy Moslem land. It was in part to end this violence that Marcos imposed martial law. At that time he demanded that all citizens turn in their guns to the government. Many Moslems balked and called for creation of an independent Moslem state. They took to the hills, where they seemingly have an unlimited supply of ammunition, Belgian-made automatic rifles, light-and heavy-caliber machine guns and British-made hand grenades. So well armed are the rebels that they shot down two F-86 jets attempting to chase them from the hills.

Maoist Rebound. Unless Marcos is willing either to meet some of the Moslems' demands for greater self-rule or to commit most of his 70,000-man armed forces to massive search-and-destroy operations, the insurrection is likely to continue for a long time. So far he has shown little inclination to grant even minimal autonomy to the Moslems.

Marcos confronts other knotty challenges elsewhere. In the hill country of southern Luzon, the Maoist "New People's Army," which was severely weakened in the first months of martial law, has rebounded.

With the membership up to around 2,000, the Maoists terrorize local officials and hold propaganda sessions in the villages to urge establishment of a Peking-style government.

Though a Catholic himself, Marcos has been under fire from part of the Catholic clergy. Some clerics criticize the government for not enforcing the 90-c--per-day minimum wage everywhere.

Others accuse Marcos' regime of torturing political prisoners and of moving the Philippines toward "totalitarianism." Bishop Francisco J. Claver recently declared that the suppression of freedom of speech, press and assembly had created a national mood of "fear and uncertainty, cynicism and distrust." A handful of young priests have gone even further; they have joined the Communists, and a few are suspected of having planned guerrilla actions. The government has responded by raiding several churches and convents and interrogating their members.

Despite the growing resistance, Marcos can justifiably point to improvements since he imposed martial law.

After the government confiscated some 500,000 firearms from the populace, the number of violent crimes dropped dramatically, particularly in Manila. The capital, once one of the most crime-ridden cities in Asia, has become one of the safest--an improvement reflected in last year's 48% increase in tourism. A drastic crackdown on tax evaders has increased government revenues enough to enable Marcos to double state expenditures on roads and utilities. A "beautification project" has removed some of the ugly squatter slums from Manila.

Marcos' most dramatic success has been in the economy. In 1973 real growth surged ahead at 10%, compared with an annual average of less than 6% during the preceding decade. A large part of this growth has resulted from the fortuitous jump in world prices of commodities, such as sugar, lumber, copper and gold, exported by the Philippines. But Marcos' policies of encouraging foreign investment have also been a powerful spur to growth. He has lured American and Japanese businessmen to the islands by liberalizing monetary and credit policies and allowing foreign firms to repatriate all of their profits.

So far a majority of Filipinos clearly back Marcos' policy of martial law. They have benefited from the improved economy and the drop in street crime. But the catalogue of problems facing Marcos could turn that support into opposition almost overnight. His challenge is to maintain a growing economy and at the same time pacify the various insurgencies threatening his control. It is a tightrope act, for if he chooses to fight the insurgents and all other opposition rather than compromise, the costs could ultimately sap the economy.

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