Heath Looks for a Way Out

The predicament of Prime Minister Edward Heath's government last week recalled a World War I cartoon of two British tommies huddled miserably in a crater at the shell-scarred front. "If you know a better 'ole," one says sharply to the other, "go to it." Like the tommies, the Prime Minister badly needs a better 'ole. Heath is faced with a crisis that shows no sign of immediate relief--and threatens to wreck the nation's economy. His confrontation with the country's coal miners has reduced Britain to such austerity measures to conserve energy as cutting power 35%, putting industry and business on a three-day week, and shutting off television at 10:30 p.m.

For a time last week it appeared that Heath had found a solution: a snap February election to show whether the country supported him or the miners. At the last minute, after a lengthy meeting with his Cabinet, Heath postponed that drastic step. Instead, he decided to meet once more with the powerful Trades Union Congress to resolve the dispute. The T.U.C., which represents 10 million British workers, has promised that if Heath would make a settlement with the 247,000 miners for a wage rise above the government's anti-inflationary Stage III guidelines, other unions would refrain from citing it as a precedent for their demands. Heath considers such a commitment necessary to hold the line on Britain's 10% inflation rate.

Politically, Heath cannot afford to look as if he is caving in after putting his country through the trauma of the three-day work week. But such a settlement could provide a face-saving way out. By and large, Britons agree that the miners are overworked and underpaid on a base pay of $57 a week. Because wages are not high enough to keep an adequate work force, the miners must work overtime to keep the country from collapse. There has been no strike, no walkout. "I am dead against breaching Stage III, but at the same time I'm dead against forcing British industry to its knees," declared Sir Raymond Brookes, chairman of the powerful Guest, Keen & Nettlefolds engineering group. "If the rest of the unions can give firm guarantees that they will not attempt to pour through the breach, I'm all in favor of making the miners a special case."

With public concern rising over paycuts and layoffs, some Tories argue that the Prime Minister would be better off taking the matter to the country with an antiunion campaign fashioned on the theme "Who Governs Britain?" But an election waged on the labor issue would be divisive. It would also spotlight the fact that Heath's policy of unfettered economic growth had failed. Warned the London Times: "The class bitterness and political mayhem would leave behind social wreckage that would take years to clear up."

Toss-Up. Nor is there any certainty that Heath would win. Although the Conservatives seem to have an edge, recent polls show that an election now would be a tossup. Indeed, there is a feeling in many quarters that Britons would prefer to vote against both Heath and Opposition Labor Leader Harold Wilson. As the Financial Times's Joe Rogaly put it last week, "My first reaction [to news that an election might be called] was, goodness, how awful if one of them wins."

Yet Heath must find a resolution soon. Politicians, economists and businessmen warned last week that time is running out for Britain's beleaguered economy. As the country wound up its third three-day work week, the costs in lost production soared to nearly $1 billion. Critics were quick to point out that the annual wage settlement sought by the miners totaled only $200 million. On the international money markets, the pound fell to $2.16, its lowest value ever against the American dollar. Nearly a million Britons had lined up for the dole. Said Lord Stokes, chairman of British Leyland: "I suggest with respect that Heath doesn't quite understand. The whole thing will collapse like a house of cards. He'll have a bankrupt nation on his hands."

Late last week that message seemed to be getting through. Amid alarming reports that steel shortages would have a crippling effect on industry, Lord Carrington, Heath's new energy czar, said that full electrical power would be restored to the steel industry. At the same time, Carrington announced that the government was considering extending the work week to four days. Union lead ers promptly charged that the emergen cy measures had been a "gigantic bluff'; others questioned whether the ease-up was a ploy before calling an election. Carrington denied it.

The government's cause was not helped by Patrick Jenkins, an energy minister, who declared that Britons should not turn on the lights when brushing their teeth since this function could easily be performed in the dark. In an inept demonstration of his point, Jenkins posed for the Daily Telegraph shaving by candlelight -- using an electric razor.

Heath's actions have already caused hardship among Britain's working class, which averages the longest hours per week (44.1) and the shortest vacation per year (twelve days) of any nation in the European Community. Reduced paychecks simply would not stretch to meet mortgage, food and time payments. "One minute we was a normal person," said Birmingham Shop Steward John Joynson. "Now the whole world is turned upside down." The number of emigration applications of Britons asking to leave the country has soared.

Wanted Babies. London's fashion able department stores looked as seedy as portside pubs, with stark light glaring from naked bulbs powered by generators. Yet there were compensations. Mayfair's elegant shops looked even more elegant with lighted silver candelabra on their counters. The widespread use of candlelight cast a heartwarming, old-fashioned glow over the misery of it all. Recalling the baby boom after the 1965 New York blackout, officials decided at 10:30 p.m. they had best sponsor a birth control campaign. Now the last thing Londoners will hear when they turn off the telly is: "Make sure your baby is a wanted one."

Meanwhile, as economists wistfully looked to the future and predicted that all would be rosy when Britain's North Sea oil fields gush in, Gordon Richardson, recently named governor of the Bank of England, warned that the country still faces "years of relative austerity." Reason: Britain had been living beyond its means and importing too much under Heath's failed gamble for growth. As it happened, that was just what Harold Wilson was saying. Sharpening up his campaign strategy, the Labor leader charged that it was not the miners who had brought on the crisis but the government's economic mis management.

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