Winning Peace and Prosperity

At the end of the Nigerian civil war four years ago this week, the Ibo people of rebellious Biafra feared that defeat would bring genocidal vengeance from the victorious Nigerian army. Instead, the Ibos are prospering as citizens of a federated Nigeria. The credit goes in large part to the young head of state, Major General Yakubu Gowon, who decreed a policy of "no victor and no vanquished" after the savage civil war that took at least 1,000,000 lives.

"Jack" Gowon, 39, turned his 250,000-man army into a well-disciplined reconstruction corps and put it to work helping the Ibos bounce back. To set an example, he hired Ibos who had fought for Biafra and made them his personal pilots and bodyguards. He gave Ibos federal jobs and saw to it that they got their fair share of senior positions, including posts as army officers. "He won the peace," says a British diplomat in Lagos, "by not acting as if he had won the war."

Long the best-educated and most industrious of Nigeria's tribes, the Ibos have used their resources to rebuild their war-torn region instead of carrying on a vendetta. When the war ended, the defeated Biafran leader, Colonel Odumegwu Ojukwu,* bitterly boasted that the Ibos would rebel again. He turned out to be wrong. Ibos these days rarely speak of Biafra or of secession. "We tried and lost," says an Ibo businessman in Ibadan. "That finishes it. From now on, we are all Nigerians."

Though the Ibos no longer dominate Nigerian commerce or the civil service as they did before the war, they are reconciled to the new order. Gowon is determined that neither they nor any other tribal group shall ever again attain such a preponderant role. "That is the road back to regional rivalry and despair," he says. "We must be proud of our origins, but work for true nationhood as Nigerians all together."

That is no easy prescription for Africa's most populous nation. Its nearly 70 million people are divided into three major ethnic groups--the Yorubas, Hausas and Ibos--and some 250 tribal offshoots. To reduce the power of the dominant tribes, Gowon, who belongs to the small Anga tribe, split Nigeria's four federal regions into twelve states. He allows them to handle their internal affairs but intervenes discreetly to make sure all tribes are consulted on local government decisions. Although Gowon rose to power as strongman of an army coup eight years ago, he believes that "you must bring all factions into the process, consult them, advise them, prod them, but above all, make them part of things. It is the only way to build a true nation."

Oil Discoveries. Along with peace, Nigeria is also gaining a bit of prosperity. Oil was discovered in the Niger River delta in 1966, and production has reached 2,200,000 bbl. per day, roughly 25% as much as Saudi Arabia was producing before its cutbacks. Gowon has followed the example of the world's major oil exporting nations and announced a 77% increase in the posted price of Nigerian crude, making it $14.69 per bbl. The new price is expected to earn Nigeria some $7 billion this year. In addition, the government currently is mulling over offers, mostly from American firms, to exploit the 2 billion cu. ft. of natural gas that now are flared daily as waste.

With a per capita annual income estimated at $125, Nigeria needs all the oil and gas revenues it can get. But Gowon has no intention of rushing the oil bonanza. To husband reserves, he is limiting production increases to the 1% per month maximum he decided was prudent long before the energy crunch. Moreover, the oil revenues give Gowon a strong hand in keeping the twelve states in line. By doling out profits to all, he keeps a firm grip on the purse strings and the pattern of economic growth.

That growth could get out of hand. The overcrowded capital of Lagos (pop. 1,500,000) is expanding its population at a rate of 20% a year--so fast, in fact, that the city is now considered almost ungovernable. Its open sewers and traffic jams are among the worst in the world. The chaos is so frustrating that Gowon recently threatened to move the federal capital to Kachia in central Nigeria.

In the context of Black Africa today, Gowon is a rarity. His personal honesty is unquestioned, and his prestige as an African spokesman is high among neighboring countries. Patient, soft-spoken and modest, he does not drink, smoke or swear, and lives quietly in a converted army barracks near Lagos with his wife and two children.

He has been criticized for moving too slowly, for failing to galvanize his people into any sustained effort at economic development, and for tolerating a certain amount of influence peddling among his subordinates. It is also true that he has not made much headway against the endemic corruption that pervades every aspect of Nigerian life. Yet, given the fanatical tribal hatreds and the incrusted corruption he faces, Gowon has proved to be an effective and sympathetic leader. To his critics, he promises that he will hold elections and return the country to civilian rule in 1976. Then, he insists, he will retire to private life in his barracks.

In a nation desperately short of political leadership, such a prospect does not strike many observers as likely. In fact, there already is a groundswell, particularly among the young, for Gowon to shed his uniform and stay on after 1976 as Nigeria's first civilian President in more than a decade.

*Now in exile in the Ivory Coast.

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