Heading for a Political Crossing

The Israelis and the Arabs clearly had a bad case of the jitters as they waited for the start of the Middle East peace conference in Geneva this week. Along the Suez and the Golan Heights there was a series of cease-fire violations--none serious, but all potentially dangerous. From the antagonists came threats and hints that they might boycott the talks. At week's end, U.S. officials admitted that the talks might be delayed "a day or two," but expressed confidence they would take place.

Basically, the positions of the Israelis and the Arabs have remained unchanged since Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's first whirlwind visit to the region in early November. Four of the six points in Kissinger's cease-fire plan have been satisfactorily carried out. One--the cease-fire itself--remains uncertain. But the most crucial of all, the "disengagement and separation of forces," has failed completely. Arab-Israeli negotiations at Kilometer 101 on the Cairo-Suez road were broken off two weeks ago by Egypt, which charged that the Israelis had no intention of pulling their forces back to the Oct. 22 lines. The United Nations Emergency Force negotiating tent at Kilometer 101 has remained empty ever since.

Egypt's President Anwar Sadat and Syria's President Hafez Assad met in Cairo early in the week to discuss joint strategy for Geneva. Egypt had already affirmed that it would attend the conference, but with "vigilance and with continued mobilization." Egypt was not prepared, warned Deputy Premier Mohamed Abdel Kader Hatem, to live once again with a no-peace-no-war stalemate. It would insist on Israeli withdrawal and on recognition of "the rights of the Palestinians." The Syrians have threatened to boycott the conference unless the Israelis withdraw from the Arab territory they have occupied since 1967. Nonetheless, Assad agreed to attend the conference as a gesture of solidarity with President Sadat.

Enthusiastic Sponsor. At the same time, the Israelis were apparently yielding, if somewhat reluctantly, to Kissinger's insistence that the Geneva conference must begin on schedule. They were bolstered last week by the House of Representatives' passage of a $2.2 billion aid bill, and by the continuing resupply of U.S. arms--indications, they believed, that the U.S. wanted them to go to Geneva in a strong position. But some Cabinet members, notably Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, maintained that Israel should boycott the conference until Syria released a list of Israeli war prisoners. Other Cabinet members contended that Israel should attend the opening of the conference but refuse to negotiate directly with the Syrians until the list of prisoners was forthcoming.

Perhaps the most enthusiastic sponsor of the conference is Egypt's Anwar Sadat. One of his advisers, alluding to the Egyptian military crossing of the Suez Canal in October, last week referred to Sadat's decision to begin peace negotiations as "the political crossing." Most participants assume that the conference can accomplish little until after the Israeli elections on Dec. 31. The Egyptians reckon that Sadat will then have about six weeks in which to get some results from the conference. If he fails, Sadat seems prepared to resume the fighting, though without much enthusiasm and probably without the advantage of surprise that the Egyptians enjoyed in October.

Firmly Opposed. Sadat reshuffled his army's command. He replaced his Chief of Staff, Lieut. General Saadeddin Shazli, who had been praised only two months ago for his troops' daring canal crossing. The new Chief of Staff is Major General Mohamed Abdel Ghani el Gamasi, the soft-spoken officer-diplomat who represented the Egyptians at the Kilometer 101 negotiations. This change, as well as the appointment of new commanders for the Second and Third Armies, was interpreted in Cairo as a strong indication of Egypt's desire for a peaceful settlement.

While Egypt and Syria settled on a negotiating stance, the Palestinian commando movement struggled to find a position that would be acceptable to its many factions. The Palestinians have not been officially invited to participate in the talks at Geneva. But, as one Arab observer put it, that did not stop them from "fighting over the bearskin before the bear is caught."

Some members of Al-Fatah, Syria's

As-Saiqa, and the Popular Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine favor establishment of a Palestinian state in territory now occupied by Israel: the West Bank of the Jordan, the Gaza Strip and the Hemmeh region to the southeast of Lake Tiberias. What troubles other Palestinians, though, is whether acceptance of such an arrangement --even if, as seems unlikely, the Israelis could be persuaded to go along with it--would jeopardize the Palestinians' long-range historic goals. George Habash, leader of the P.F.L.P., remains firmly opposed to negotiation: he still insists on nothing less than the total recovery of what was once Palestine and the creation of a secular, democratic state there for both Jews and Arabs. Palestinian moderates argue, on the other hand, that the movement must scale down its goals if it is to achieve anything at the conference table.

One of the commando movement's problems is that its strength on the West Bank is unknown, or at least unproved. Probably for that reason, a rash of terrorist incidents broke out there last week. One grenade landed in the Jeep of the military governor of Nablus, Colonel Eliezer Segev, wounding him seriously; the Israelis accordingly imposed a curfew on the town of Nablus for the first time in four years. To the north near the town of Jenin, Israeli troops demolished five houses belonging to Arabs suspected of sabotage.

The Israelis also awakened eight prominent West Bank Palestinians in their homes early one morning, blindfolded them, drove them to a desert outpost on the Jordanian border, and expelled them on charges of "inciting guerrilla activity." Among them was Jerusalem Lawyer Abdel Mohsen Abu Meizer, a well-known Palestinian socialist. The highhanded action quickly backfired. Four days later, the eight Palestinians reappeared at the border and vainly attempted to cross the Allenby Bridge to their homes on the West Bank. The demonstration forced the Israelis to close the bridge for four hours. It also helped to arouse the emotions of West Bank Palestinians, who thus far have remained largely impassive about the commando cause.

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