A Holiday Test for the President

As Christmas approaches and the most hectic and trying year in his memory draws to a close, President Nixon will face a particularly severe test. Congress will recess late this week, sending members home for a month of fence mending and careful probing of sentiment about the President among those whom Senate Republican Leader Hugh Scott calls "the people in the drugstores." What the legislators hear may well determine Nixon's future, for most would agree with Republican National Chairman George Bush that "the momentum for resignation or impeachment will [have to] come from the people." Adds Scott: "Every member of Congress is a walking Gallup poll, and a better one because he has more at stake."

Popularity Gain. Largely because two nationwide polls showed the biggest rise in Nixon's popularity since the Viet Nam peace agreement was signed last January, the President and his aides seemed ebullient last week. The latest Harris poll was taken in mid-November, before the public learned of the mysterious 18-minute gap on one of the Watergate tape recordings; the survey found that 37% of Americans rated Nixon's performance as "good" or "excellent" -up five points since October. The Gallup poll was conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 3, after the tape gap became known; it showed a four-point rise -to 31% -in public approval of Nixon since the alltime low in October and early November.

According to Gallup, most of Nixon's gain in popularity has been in the

South. As one indication of his support there, some 1,200 delegates at a meeting of Southern Republicans in Atlanta cheered every mention of Nixon's name. Nothing drew more howls of derision than mention of the news media, especially the TV networks and the Washington Post. But the delegates still laughed when Tennessee Congressman LaMar Baker joked: "What we've got to do is get crime out of the White House and back into the streets."

The upswing in the polls convinced many aides that Nixon's Operation Candor was partly succeeding in explaining away his Watergate woes. Last week Nixon expanded his efforts to appear to be visibly in charge as President. He met with his new energy team, headed by William E. Simon, then briefed 18 Governors on the crisis. He talked to Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare, about his own ideas for a health insurance plan that would cover all Americans, but gave no details about timing or financing. He was moved by Columnist Mike Royko's report that a clerk in the Veterans Administration had decided not to pay for plastic surgery for Leroy Bailey, 31, of La Grange,Ill., whose face was shattered by a rocket in South Viet Nam in 1968. Nixon ordered that the VA reverse the decision.

For the first time in months, Nixon found time for minor ceremonial events. He greeted Miss National Teenager, Betty Nightingale, 17, of Fort Fairfield, Me. He welcomed the Most Rev. Jean Jadot, Apostolic Delegate to the U.S., even though the delegate had arrived July 12. The President accepted from Country-Western Singer Tex Ritter a record of excerpts from Nixon speeches narrated by Ritter and titled Thank You, Mr. President. He received petitions of support signed by 46,000 people in Shreveport and Bossier City, La. At twilight Friday, Nixon, applauded by Boy Scouts and Camp Fire girls, pushed a button to light a star atop the nation's Christmas tree on the Ellipse south of the White House.

Scuttled Theories. The picture of an active President led Counsellor Anne Armstrong, who has recently grown in influence at the White House, to crow: "He intends to take a very strong leadership role; Watergate is a receding problem." Her optimism, however, was premature; Watergate is by no means fading. In fact, it has so permeated the national consciousness that its themes are in soap operas and newspaper comic strips. Orphan Annie, a Right-minded strip distributed by the pro-Nixon New York News Inc., recently made the point that a man'of high principles-like Daddy Warbucks or, by implication, Richard Nixonwould never stoop to authorize a burglary.

In the Watergate case itself, the big mystery is still how 18 minutes of the White House tape recording of Nixon's conversation with former Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman on June 20, 1972 -three days after the Watergate break-in-was erased. White House aides have tried to pin the blame on Secretary Rose Mary Woods, who admits to the possibility of having accidentally erased "four to five minutes" of the tape by mistakenly pressing the "record" button, evidently while keeping her foot on the pedal that advanced the tape. Presidential Chief Counsel J. Fred Buzhardt buttressed the theory, testifying that he had re-created a loud hum on the erased tape by using Miss Woods' electric typewriter, high-intensity lamp and Uher 5000 tape recorder.

Last week, however, the six-man panel of electronics and acoustical experts scuttled the White House theory. After studying the tapes for 13 days, they told Federal Judge John J. Sirica in a preliminary report that neither the lamp nor the typewriter was "a likely cause" of the hum.

Significantly, the experts added that "yet to be confirmed by further study are some indications that the Uher recorder could have produced the buzz."

That means somebody could have de liberately erased the tape on the Uher.

In response, an Administration spokes man said that the White House has only one Uher 5000 recorder and that only Miss Woods used it. But the Secret Ser vice has at least three of the machines that have been borrowed from time to time by members of Nixon's staff.

In court, White House Chief of Staff Alexander M. Haig said that he had "heard" that "several sources" in the Administration had discussed the theory that Miss Woods could have acciden tally pressed the fast rewind pedal, which would erase the 18-minute seg ment in a few seconds. But that oper ation would have left a high-pitched whine on the tape, not the hum that is present, and would have required Miss Woods to have played the segment -as she testified she did not -before rewind ing and erasing it.

Single Reel. In their report, the ex perts held out little hope that the con versation can be recovered. But they must run further tests to be sure, as well as to determine if the tape was erased, spliced, edited or whether it is the original recording or a doctored copy. Many questions about the tape will be answered, at least partially, when the panel of experts makes its final re port to Sirica shortly after Jan. 1. Af terward, Sirica said, the panel will con tinue "its comprehensive study of the authenticity and integrity of the tapes in general."

Sirica himself has been listening to subpoenaed tapes to determine which parts can be turned over to Special Watergate Prosecutor Leon Jaworski and the grand jury. Jaworski and the grand jury sought them as evidence in determining whether to indict more people in the Watergate case. Last week Sirica delivered to Jaworski a single reel of tape, which contained conversations regarding Watergate excerpted from two presidential tapes.

Jaworski also reported that the White House surrendered two unsub-poenaed tapes to him, as well as a number of written documents. Nobody would disclose what they concerned. But the action signified a new spirit of cooperation by the White House, as did the Administration's decision to let Jaworski's assistants comb White House files for more Watergate-related documents. Even so, other documents that Jaworski requested, including some concerning activities of the White House plumbers, cannot be found.

Jaworski also has won the cooperation of Congress. Senate Democrats have been so impressed by his performance that they shelved bills to set up a special prosecutor's office independent of the Executive Branch.

For Nixon, the crunch comes early next year, when Congress is likely to decide whether to press for his impeachment. Last week Vice President Gerald Ford urged the House Judiciary Committee to speed up its leisurely pace and get the impeachment question out of the way before the congressional election campaign begins in earnest. He said that if the issue is not resolved by April, "then you can say it is partisan." Indeed, some Democrats would like to have the committee's proceedings drag on into the year to embarrass the G.O.P.

Like Ford, White House aides are confident that Congress will not have hard evidence of "high crimes and misdemeanors"-the Constitution's grounds for impeachment. But some legal scholars claim that the President may be guilty of up to 78 impeachable offenses. Whether Congress tries him on any of them, however, will depend largely on what members learn about grassroots sentiment during their holiday.

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