Phnom-Penh's Pulse

The death watch in Cambodia has begun. With signs of its vitality fast fading, the Phnom-Penh regime last week resembled a terminal patient approaching the end. As many as 12,000 Khmer insurgent troops had massed within a 20-mile radius of the capital. Some crept so close that they were within two-mile mortar range, from where they shelled the city, killing 20 civilians and wounding 75. TIME Correspondent Barry Hillenbrand was in Phnom-Penh to measure the life expectancy of the regime. His report:

The situation in Cambodia is so grave that it is hard to find an optimistic military assessment around Phnom-Penh. The army of President Lon Nol is not performing well. Even with the intense U.S. bombing, the insurgents merely take their losses and keep on coming. A well-informed Western intelligence officer observes that "while the government's forces have been going downhill, the insurgents have been improving." Even usually optimistic Premier In Tam candidly allowed that the military situation was going "from bad to worse." Villagers flee devastated hamlets as American warplanes drone overhead. Roads leading to Phnom-Penh are crowded with refugees, their pots, mattresses, bedframes and children piled high on ox-drawn carts.

The insurgents are only two miles from Takhmau, a suburb of Phnom-Penh so critical to the capital's defenses that one Western diplomat vows that "if the insurgents take Takhmau. I'm heading for the airport." One might expect that the approach to Takhmau would be studded with government gun emplacements and fallback defensive positions. Not so. It is poorly defended. To the soldiers along Route 2, which cuts through Takhmau to Phnom-Penh, the situation looks bleak. They feel that the government has done little for them. They complain about the corruption of the Lon Nol regime. One soldier, a deep orange flower stuck in the band of his helmet, asks as he takes time out from battle to fix some rice for a meager lunch: "Where are all the medicines? We don't see them out here. They are on the black market in Phnom-Penh." Worrying about the fast-approaching August 15 end to U.S. air support, he admits that "It's going to be difficult to fight without it."

The situation appears so hopeless that the Australian embassy has evacuated all dependents and has sent hand-delivered letters to all its other nationals living in Phnom-Penh, firmly suggesting that unless urgent business keeps them there, they had better leave as soon as possible. The British have done the same. The incessant bombing by American planes is now so close that the explosions not only rattle the windows of Phnom-Penh's buildings but also shake some interior walls. On the broad park lawns of the capital, military instructors attempt to train new troops.

Faceless Leaders. Though earlier this month Lon Nol finally announced a draft, after relying on volunteers to fill his army for the past three years, it is difficult to imagine that the draft or anything else can save the city from ultimate collapse. It is much easier to imagine Lon Nol's forces breaking and running after the U.S. bombing ends with the insurgents then marching into the city with little opposition. Or Lon Nol might be persuaded to resign finally, and a reform government would take control. But no one knows whether the insurgents would be willing to talk with a new government. In fact, the insurgents remain a mysterious force with faceless leaders. Only Prince Norodom Sihanouk, still in exile in Peking, attempts to speak for them, but there is considerable doubt that he has their complete following.

Today, more than ever before, most of the cards are in the insurgents' hands. If they want to pay the price, in terms of civilian casualties and damage to the city, they could storm and capture the Cambodian capital. They could do so with ease after the U.S. bombing halt and, on the evidence of the past week's advances, might even succeed before the halt. It appears that both the U.S. and the Soviet Union are preparing for that day. The U.S. has transformed its embassy into a fortress, adding new antirocket screens, closed-circuit television and reinforced guard posts. The Russians, on the other hand, are reportedly building a new large embassy reception hall--which might become quite active if the insurgents, with their Communist ties, come to power.

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