Harvest of Worry

For months, across much of the nation's farm belt, crops and livestock have been savaged by freezing weather, ice storms and incessant rain. Record floods turned vast stretches of rich loam into great bogs of mud, delaying or barring altogether the planting of spring crops. The weather has at last turned bright, and farmers are racing to make up for lost time. But opinions now differ as to whether enough corn and other crops will be produced this year to boost supplies and hold down soaring food prices.

The Nixon Administration, which has sought to raise output this year by rejiggering its agricultural policies, remains optimistic. Last week the Department of Agriculture issued an interim progress report. Its main point: there is still time to get enough seed into the ground to ensure big harvests.

The report estimates that corn production will hit 6 billion bushels, up 10% from last year, soybean crops will yield 1.55 billion bushels, up 20%, and wheat will come in at 1.7 billion bushels, up 12%.

In the case of soybeans and wheat, the Administration's hopes seem well founded. Realistically assuming soybean plantings of 54 million acres, a modest yield of 27.3 bu. an acre would produce a bounteous crop; good weather could raise this yield to 30 or more bushels and cut the price of beans by as much as 50%. Wheat is headed for a bumper crop of up to 300 million bushels more than last year. There is a good chance that wheat prices will dip this year--unless the Russians come into the market again and bid prices up. Other produce, including tomatoes, sweet corn and green beans, should also be good, and citrus fruits are abundant.

The outlook for other yields is far less rosy. Cold weather and rain have destroyed much of Georgia's peach crop, and the prospects for rice and Midwestern apples are glum. Last week Farmer Morris Moeckly looked over his rain-swamped land near Polk City, Iowa, and wryly wondered if his biggest crop this year might be fish. About 60 of his 450 acres are still under water, and Moeckly noted, "It will be much too late to plant corn in there now."

Indeed corn, used mainly to fatten animals, is the most threatened feed crop of all. The Government had hoped that 74 million acres of corn would be planted nationally this year, but farmers in most Midwestern states are well behind that schedule. In Iowa, the nation's biggest corn state, deep mud had by last week held plantings to 18% of the total potential acreage, v. 30% at this time last year. Even if the farmers do hit the Government target on acreage, it is doubtful that they will get a big enough crop to fulfill Administration estimates. Seeds put in the ground late tend to give thinner yields, and about 30% of the corn this year will have been sown after the optimum planting period, which ends, depending on the region, between May 1 and May 20.

Corn shortages would kick up the cost of cattle feed and all but rule out a decline in beef prices in the foreseeable future. Though demand for beef continues to grow, about 3% fewer cattle are now going to market than at this time last year. One reason is that spring cold and storms decimated some herds; a blizzard last month in Iowa wiped out 90,000 head. In addition, cold, wet weather slowed the fattening of many steers, who used up calories just to keep warm. This, too, has hurt, because many ranchers and feed-lot operators are now holding back the cattle until they put on more weight. But unless feed prices come down later this year, the expense of keeping cattle will be high, and steers may well be sold before they are fully fattened, thus reducing the meat supply and driving prices up even higher.

In all, this year's crops, especially corn, will be large enough to pull down food prices only if farmers enjoy ideal rain and sunshine, no sudden frosts, an ample supply of fuel and fertilizer and an absence of blight. Such an unbroken string of happy circumstances is as rare in agriculture as eight passes in a row are at the crap table.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.