Barometer Reading: Clear Weather

THE sleek blue and white Soviet IL-62 jet descended circling out of the hazy blue sky, touched down lightly and taxied toward a welcoming band of West German officials led by Chancellor Willy Brandt. Black, gold and red West German flags and red and gold Soviet banners snapped in the breeze as the guard of honor clicked to attention, steel-tipped black boots at the prescribed 45-degree angle. Soviet Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev strode down the steps, shook hands with Brandt and stood at attention as a Bundeswehr band played the two nations' anthems.

It was one of those extraordinary moments in history that seem to sum up an era. As a Soviet editor put it, "When Brezhnev steps down in Bonn, you can draw a line under World War II." Brezhnev made it clear that he believed the outlook to be sunny. During a brief earlier visit to East Berlin, he had said: "The political barometer in Europe today points more and more plainly to clear weather." At the airport, he added: "We can say that a good foundation has been created. Now it is important to build on this foundation a stable edifice of good neighborly relations." Said Brandt: "A sorrowful history has made it difficult for us to get together, but we have dared to make a new beginning ... we shall continue our dialogue of peaceful cooperation."

On the drive to the Petersberg Hotel from the airport, a few anti-Brezhnev slogans appeared. In general, the mood was calm. That may have been because the security precautions in Bonn were the most stringent in the history of the Federal Republic. At least 6,500 police and border guards patrolled the Rhine-side capital; Brezhnev's temporary residence at the refurbished Petersberg was surrounded by guards. Only three mass demonstrations were authorized by the cautious local police--one organized by the pro-Brezhnev German Communist Party (D.K.P.) and two by right-wing groups protesting the visit.

A helicopter equipped with a television camera circled over the demonstrations, ready to single out untoward disturbances. Earlier in the week, police had raided several offices of the anti-Brezhnev, Maoist-lining Communist Party of Germany (K.P.D.), in a clear signal that any planned nastiness would not be tolerated. Proceedings are under way to ban the K.P.D.

As far as the leaders themselves were concerned, all the auguries seemed positive. In a pair of auspiciously timed interviews (Brezhnev with Stern, Brandt with Izvestia), both men radiated optimism. "I am coming with great interest and good will," Brezhnev told the German editors last week. "I am of the opinion that the Moscow Treaty has created an adequate foundation for the all-round development of relations."

Chancellor Brandt stressed the opportunity for more "human" contacts: "I am not just thinking of agreements between countries. What seems just as important to me are contacts between people ... young people, parliamentarians, scientists, artists, people from economic life and labor."

Each leader professed the highest respect for the other. Brezhnev, said Brandt, is someone "with whom it is possible to discuss difficult problems in all openness." For his part, the Soviet party chief described Brandt "as a serious man, an objective man with whom one can negotiate constructively, who sees the big problems and who does not stop for trifles."

Conveniently, neither mentioned the single greatest problem that stands in the way of improved trade and diplomatic relations between the two nations. Long ago, Nikita Khrushchev described West Berlin as a "bone in my throat"; the bone still sticks. During Brezhnev's five-day visit to West Germany, at least three previously initialed Bonn-Moscow agreements will be formally signed: on economic and industrial cooperation, cultural exchange and an extension of civil air routes. Two others--on the environment and scientific and technical cooperation--are snagged on the Berlin question.

Bonn insists that both must apply to West Berlin. The Russians refuse. On the environment issue, for instance, the Russians were willing to go along with the inclusion of a West Berlin clause until it occurred to them that the city's canals, according to a 1945 Allied agreement, fall under East Berlin's control. (In many cases, these canals constitute the East-West boundary.) This raised the question of East German participation in the Bonn-Moscow arrangement--and a pause for reconsideration was ordained. During Brezhnev's stopover in East Berlin, he made it clear that the Soviet Union would not weaken on its stand that West Berlin is not part of West Germany and is not governed from Bonn.

Broad Discussions. Over the next few days, the two leaders were scheduled to discuss a broad range of topics, including not only Soviet-West German affairs but also European questions such as security and troop reductions.

Brezhnev was scheduled to pay a formal call on Federal President Gustav Heinemann, meet with German businessmen, make a brief excursion to the town of Gummersbach. The agenda was weighted toward the economic side.

Among the possibilities: an umbrella agreement for a West German-built $2.2 billion steel foundry near Kursk, another for a machine tool factory, a third for a new nuclear plant in the Soviet Union that would deliver power to West Germany.

It seemed plausible that Brezhnev, flying home after his visit, might well tuck a few more triumphs into his suitcase. That could only expand his swelling prestige back in Moscow, where he has been the recent recipient of a remarkable press buildup. Example: in the week following May Day 1972, Pravda mentioned Brezhnev's name 18 times. In the similar period this year, Pravda cited him an extraordinary 371 times. If all goes as well as expected, Brezhnev will arrive in Washington next month at the crest of a powerful personal tide.

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