Monday, Feb. 19, 1973
Getting Almost All Points of View
THIS is sort of Middle East month," said President Nixon last week as he welcomed King Hussein of Jordan to the White House. "First you, and then in March Mrs. Meir. It helps to get all points of view." Nixon's reference could have been more adroitly phrased; neither Hussein nor Israeli Premier Golda Meir particularly enjoys being characterized as Washington's Middle Eastern belligerent-of-the-week. But by and large, the implication was correct. The visits by the two leaders, only three weeks apart, were a sharp reminder to the U.S. that there is another crisis area in the world that demands attention.
The Middle East deserves priority rating for several reasons. One is that the U.S. and other Western nations are suffering from an energy crisis that threatens to deplete their oil supplies; the Arab nations control much of the world's oil reserves--a factor that must shape foreign policy planning to some extent. Beyond that, the Middle East is a logical area in which to extend the Nixon-Kissinger doctrine of peace through power balances, especially since the Soviet Union is also a presence in the region. "After Nixon's success in Viet Nam," said an Israeli diplomat last week, "all of Washington is becoming Metternichized."
The adversaries in the Middle East's no-war, no-peace stalemate agree that peace cannot come unless the major powers will it. They believe that any real breakthrough will appear only after Nixon and Soviet Party Boss Leonid Brezhnev confer later this year in Washington. Therefore, in addition to being shopping trips for additional U.S. military or economic aid, both Hussein's and Mrs. Meir's visits were designed to lay the groundwork for that later call.
Hussein, who was accompanied to the U.S. by his lissome new wife Alia, sought to draw Nixon's attention to a recent mood of conciliation among Arabs, who for the moment feel that they cannot defeat Israel militarily. Before leaving Amman, the King patched up his long-running quarrel with Egypt and Syria over the status of the Palestinian fedayeen in Jordan, at a meeting of the Arab League Defense Council. As long as the fedayeen are kept in check, Hussein would agree to the re-establishment of the Eastern Front, a largely meaningless unification of Arab armies under Egyptian command on Israel's border with Jordan. The King also got Syria and Egypt to agree that neither would undercut him if he suggested in Washington that the Arabs might finally recognize Israel in return for their occupied territories.
In an article for the Times of London last week, writing in anticipation of his U.S. visit, Hussein for the first time announced that he would be willing to grant independence to the West Bank, the area west of the Jordan River captured by Israeli troops during the Six-Day War. Once Israel returned the area, Hussein would be agreeable to a plebiscite of its Arab population. He thereby appeared ready to cede a chunk of his kingdom and a quarter of his population in return for peace and Arab economic support. But he had hardly begun his Washington rounds when Israel seemed to knock down his offer.
Even though he described Hussein's Washington visit as "a very positive move," Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Dayan went on to insist that the West Bank "is our homeland, and I think that the Israeli government should have a peace agreement, when it comes, that would [give us] the right to settle everywhere in the West Bank."
Premier Meir told TIME Correspondent William Marmon that she would oppose independence for the West Bank if the topic arose during her Washington visit. One reason is that Israel considers the West Bank a buffer for Israeli security. With independence, the area might again become a launching pad for attacks by unreconstructed Palestinian guerrillas.
While in Washington, Hussein sought additional jet fighters as well as other military aid from the U.S. Strange as it might seem, Israel had no objections to his request. Jordan actually is an even bigger buffer than the West Bank; as long as Hussein stays on the throne, one of Israel's longest borders is peaceful and neutralized. On her trip to the U.S. next month, however, Mrs. Meir will be seeking much more in the way of military equipment. In addition to extra Phantoms, which are faster and more heavily armed than the F-5Es that the U.S. is supplying Hussein, Israel seeks Skyhawk jet bombers, tanks and helicopters to develop air-mobile paratrooper units.
Key. Ultimately, Jordan is not the principal force that either the U.S. or Israel has to reckon with: the Egyptians are still the key to peace in the Middle East. Israel, which has some Metternichian ideas of its own about peace, firmly believes that only its military might and toughness in negotiations have kept the area peaceful for almost three years in the absence of a formal treaty. Israel's territorial imperatives, therefore, are largely unchanged. Mrs. Meir told Marmon that withdrawal from much of Sinai and the West Bank, and the return of the West Bank to Jordanian sovereignty with Israeli outposts, is negotiable. But Israel will not withdraw anywhere else. "I can't imagine any Israeli so mad as to come down completely from the Golan Heights," she said. "Sharm el Sheikh is of absolutely no value to the Egyptians except to block Israeli shipping. For us it is a lifeline to Africa and Asia."
As for Hussein's hope of recovering East Jerusalem in return for peace with Israel, Mrs. Meir insisted: "It doesn't matter how you coat it. Arab sovereignty in Jerusalem just cannot be. This city will not be divided--not half and half, not 60-40, not 75-25, nothing. The only way we will lose Jerusalem is if we lose a war, and then we lose all of it."
The U.S., if it hopes to find peace at all in the Middle East, must therefore concentrate not on Hussein, but on Egypt. The immediate hope of American diplomats is to reopen the Suez Canal through "proximity talks" between Israel and Egypt. With Israel still in an intransigent mood about giving up occupied territory, the outlook for such talks last week was bleak. "We are looking for new means," said one U.S. official involved in the discussions, "but so far we have not found them."
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