The Postwar War

The time: possibly a few weeks from now. The negotiations in Paris have been successful, and a cease-fire has been declared in Viet Nam. But instead of peace, there is a spate of small-scale skirmishes as both sides make a frenzied rush to claim contested land. Every day there are reports of assassinations--of both South Vietnamese government officials and suspected Communist sympathizers. Almost every town in the land is subjected to a cacophony of demonstrations, celebrations and parades. There is also a deadly serious war of flags, as each side plants its banners in as many villages as possible, and tears down those of its opponent. By the time the proposed international supervisory commission arrives, "peace" in Viet Nam has become another kind of war.

That scenario is not entirely imaginary. On the evidence of captured Communist documents and the public and private edicts of South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu, it is the most probable aftermath of any ceasefire. Both sides have for months been preparing for a tumultuous, violent postwar war that will determine the political future of South Viet Nam as much as any battle of the past.

Within 72 hours after an agreement is signed in Paris, North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces plan a coordinated charge into Saigon-controlled cities, villages and rural hamlets. The crack North Vietnamese 7th Division, stationed north of Saigon, has had standing orders since October to "force enemy personnel to withdraw. Gain control of many more hamlets. Motivate the people and support them to rise up, kill tyrants and break the enemy's oppressive control." Another Communist directive orders units to "incite inhabitants to engage in street demonstrations to welcome the victories of the revolution," and to "lead enemy troops' dependents to their relatives' posts to urge them to desert and return home."

The Communists have been meticulous in planning a takeover of the key city of Danang, according to captured documents. When the agreement is broadcast, Communist troops will execute a two-part plan. Some units will make a concerted military assault on the city's police and militia posts. At the same time, other troops will "hang peace flags and lanterns, fly flower-decked balloons and hold unicorn dances [traditional Vietnamese dance at a time of joy], entertainment shows and peace-float processions to create an enthusiastic atmosphere and rally a large number of people. In the event the enemy represses the demonstrators," the directive adds, "we will carry the corpses of the demonstrators to city hall."

Banner Battle. To subvert any strictures on new arms shipments, the Communists have ordered that weapons and munitions plants hidden in the jungles of Cambodia and Laos be smuggled piecemeal into South Viet Nam. (For much the same reason, tons of equipment on U.S. bases have been formally donated to the South Vietnamese, then "loaned" back.)

Both sides have given top priority to a battle of the banners, symbols of territorial control. Communist directives urge troops to "be ready to paint flags when occupying territory, and hang flags everywhere when the agreement is signed; this is the way to enlarge our area and snatch people and land from the enemy. Plant flags, hang flags, paint flags, set up triumphal arches, display posters."

President Thieu is also thinking flag. He has prohibited imports of red, blue or gold cloth, the colors of the National Liberation Front banner, and issued orders that anyone caught tearing down a government flag is to be shot on sight. When a cease-fire seemed near last October, he hastily ordered more than a million red and yellow South Viet Nam banners. The Government colors now fly from or are painted on virtually every building and lamppost in Saigon-controlled sections of the country.

The Communist moves must await a ceasefire; but Thieu can act now, and he has. He has dispersed South Vietnamese soldiers to head off any Viet Cong rush into contested hamlets, and sent 5,000 young officer cadets into the countryside to bolster the villagers' resolve. He has mounted a brutal campaign against dissidents, during which Communists have been assassinated and 10,000 or more suspected sympathizers--including many pacifists and neutralists--have been imprisoned for indefinite terms. Recently Thieu secretly ordered a "reclassification" of many political captives. They are now listed as common criminals, so that they can be held beyond any cease-fire exchange.

Each side, of course, hopes to win during the cease-fire the contested territory that it could not win in battle. In this postwar war, Thieu will have the advantage of the sheer weight of government and a visible standing army. The Communists, however, may have the more imaginative plans. When the supervisory commission arrives, says one directive, "we must mobilize the people to bring flags to meet it and present it with petitions and demand that the commission give its guarantee to the people of the liberated areas."

The postwar peace may thus be won or lost in the first few days--or else the groundwork will be laid for another prolonged war, as happened in the mid-1950s. Following the 1954 Geneva accord, both sides ruthlessly prevented the International Control Commission from observing its war preparations. History may repeat itself unless a new supervisory commission is in place when a cease-fire takes effect. Otherwise the commission will likely find its job rendered impossible before it ever reaches South Viet Nam.

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