Assessing the New Rules

THE rules of the Democratic Party reform are complex, but the aim is simple: to reduce back-room manipulation by bosses, broaden grass-roots participation and produce delegations at the Miami convention next July that more adequately represent women, blacks and the young --and the preferences of the voters.

The most effective of the 18 new guidelines has to do with the selection of delegates at the local level in states that do not hold primaries. It stipulates that at least 75% of them be elected in open caucuses at the precinct, congressional district or other regional level below that of a statewide convention. Thus instead of permitting a few state party leaders to meet secretly to select most delegates, party officials must schedule and advertise the regional meetings and permit any registered Democrat to participate. While state procedures vary, some delegates in each will still be chosen at state conventions, and a few by party bosses.

In many states, the new rules make a remarkable difference. Four years ago, for example, a handful of Democratic Party leaders in Arizona met privately to pick that state's delegation. But last month more than 35,000 Democrats cast ballots as a first step in choosing Arizona's delegates. Similarly, in the state of Iowa some 45,000 Democrats cared enough to venture out in a January blizzard to attend 2,600 precinct caucuses and make their preferences known at the base of the selection pyramid.

Two other rules are working some profound changes in the Democrats' traditional ways of doing business. These guidelines 1) allow anyone seeking a delegate position to declare which candidate he will support, and 2) forbid the old practice of permitting delegations to vote as a unit at the national convention. The changes affect:

FAVORITE SONS. The ability of a state leader to run as a favorite son in order to gain bargaining power at the convention has been largely blocked. The grass-roots party voters prefer to select delegates who are committed to a genuine candidate. Without the binding effect of the unit rule, a favorite son can no longer be certain that he will not be embarrassed by defections. Moreover, the rules now require that to be placed in nomination in Miami, a candidate must have the support of 50 delegates--no more than 20 of these from any single state. Thus Governors John Gilligan of Ohio, Milton Shapp of Pennsylvania and Marvin Mandel of Maryland, and Senators Harrison Williams of New Jersey and John Tunney of California, all have abandoned plans to run as favorite sons this year.

LABOR. The traditional power tactic of labor leaders has been to get their members selected as uncommitted delegates. This enhanced their collective power at the convention. But they are finding that unless they can stack a local caucus, uncommitted slates or individuals can rarely win now. AFL-CIO officials running as uncommitted delegates in Arizona, for example, were soundly defeated; five of Arizona's 25 elected delegates are uncommitted. This trend is pressuring labor to choose sides earlier.

FRONT RUNNERS. Eliminating the clout of favorite sons and organized labor has had the net effect of aiding the party's front-running candidate Edmund Muskie. Encouraged to commit themselves earlier, the power brokers tend to go with the man they see as most likely to win.

Far less certain is whether state delegations will be balanced with women, blacks and the young. Such individuals must seek to become delegates and turn up at caucuses in sufficient numbers to produce balanced results. In those states with primary elections, it is up to the candidates to balance their slates and get them elected.

There are certain to be challenges at the national convention. Ironically, the reforms may lead to a less competitive convention. "To the degree that you open up the delegate process, you close up the convention," concedes one of Muskie's strategists, not unhappily. As a result, the only shouting at the convention may arise in fights over the makeup of the delegations; partly because of the new rules, the nominee may have been decided upon long before July.

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