The War Returns as an Issue

THE President's disclosure of his efforts to end the war was a timely move, judging by a recently conducted poll. Though many Republicans thought Viet Nam as an issue was largely defused, a survey by Cambridge Opinion Studies of 1,561 households revealed that 42% of the voters now regard Viet Nam as a "leverage" issue, that is, one important enough to determine how they will vote. Six months before, only 26% of the voters considered the war a key issue.

The poll has particular meaning for the White House because Cambridge is a Manhattan-based firm that undertakes political studies only for Republicans. The latest poll was directed by the firm's president, Tully Plesser, a registered Republican. His survey is considered more accurate than others because he polls only people who are likely to vote. "It is as if the voters have suddenly realized that the war is still going on," he says. The survey indicates "rough going for the President." Just how rough was shown by the fact that 33% of the people sampled said they will vote against Nixon no matter who his opponent is. For an incumbent President, the figure is surprisingly high.

Even more distressing for Republicans are the West Coast findings. In a three-man race in California, Oregon and Washington, Edmund Muskie is favored over Nixon by 59% to 33% of the vote, with 8% going to George Wallace (see TIME Election Survey, page 24). Forty-two percent of those sampled in these states would vote against Nixon regardless of his opponent. In the Middle Atlantic and New England states, 38% of the voters are resolutely anti-Nixon. Across the nation, 65% of the nonwhite vote would go to the President's opponent.

Nixon is still ahead, however. In the survey, he holds a lead over Muskie, the only Democrat measured against him. Nixon gets 46% of the vote compared to Muskie's 42% and Wallace's 12%. Curiously, the poll shows no marked weakness for the President among 18-year-old voters. Of all voter age groups, he is least liked by those in the 25-to-34-year range.

Though Democratic National Chairman Larry O'Brien has argued that the Wallace vote will mainly hurt the Democratic candidate, the Cambridge study shows otherwise. When Wallace was projected out of the survey, the bulk of his vote went to Nixon. Concludes Plesser: "It is important for the re-election of the President for Wallace to be eliminated from the campaign."

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