How the Experts Size Up This Year

ECONOMIC statistics cannot be predicted to the last billion dollars or tenth of a percentage point --and indeed it has not been unknown for some Government forecasts of the value of national production to be off by $15 billion. For 1971, TIME'S Board of Economists came closer than most seers. Its members' predictions of gross national product averaged $1,049.2 billion, and they forecast that unemployment would peak at 6% to 6.2%. The actual figures: around $1,050 billion and 6.2%. Now the economists are putting their numbers on the record for this year. Their forecasts:

GNP (in billions) REAL GROWTH INFLATIONARY GROWTH* UNEMPLOYMENT PROFIT INCREASE Average Last Quarter, 1972 (before taxes)

Otto Eckstein $1,148 5.8% 3.2% 5.7% 5.4% 14.1%

Alan Greenspan 1,147 5.8 3.1 5.5 5.3 15

David Grove 1,154 6.4 3.2 5.6 5.4 17.4

Walter Heller 1,150 6.0 3.3 5.6 5.4 15

Robert Nathan 1,145 5.5 3.3 5.85 5.75 15

Arthur Okun 1,148 5.7 3.4 5.6 5.3 15

Joseph Pechman 1,146 5.4 3.4 5.5 5.3 15

Beryl Sprinkel 1,145 5.9 3.1 5.4 5 14

* Based on the so-called G.N.P. deflator, a combination of wholesale and retail price and pay increases.

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