The Latest Scoop

Still months from post time, the 1972 Democratic presidential sweepstakes have already recorded a scratch, Iowa Senator Harold Hughes, and an unexpected dark-horse entry, Oklahoma Senator Fred Harris. Assessing his chances recently, Harris noted that he must do well in the early primaries, then "get close to the top two in the polls." The top two by then? Ed Muskie, of course. And? "Scoop Jackson."

When Senator Henry Martin Jackson, 59, began to toy with the idea of a candidacy last spring, he was rated as having little better than an outside chance for the vice-presidential nomination, and virtually none for No. 1. Since then, the Washington Democrat has moved up remarkably fast. There are still few shrewd politicians of either party who see Jackson as the 1972 Democratic nominee; he is barely visible in the national polls, registering only 1% or 2%.

Square Position. Among ranking G.O.P. officials, Jackson was recently rated the Democrat Richard Nixon would find most difficult to defeat. In a July poll of Democratic leaders, he comes in a surprising second to Muskie, and leads Hubert Humphrey, Teddy Kennedy and George McGovern. Says another Democratic hopeful, Indiana's Birch Bayh: "There is a lot of support around the country for Scoop." When Hughes bowed out, he confessed: "I didn't take Jackson seriously, but I take him very seriously now."

Jackson's surge is in large part a measure of his unique position in the crowded field of aspirants. In contrast to his opposition, he has positioned himself squarely with the military-industrial establishment and big Pentagon budgets, thus cornering several limited but loyal bases of support and money. In recent weeks, he has tempered his pro-war views; he now favors a gradual withdrawal. He supports the President's proposed trip to China. Jackson also claims to have the most liberal voting record on civil rights and domestic issues of any prospective candidate. The Americans for Democratic Action, however, disagree; the organization ranks him well below Muskie, McGovern and Bayh on the basis of his Senate votes.

Anathema. Besides becoming known as the "different" candidate, Jackson plans to overcome his lack of recognition by winning an important primary, and he has chosen Florida as the site of the test. The Florida primary comes only a week after New Hampshire's, so it has high--and early --visibility. It may also prove an excellent sounding board for the Jackson thesis that the economy, not the war, will be the major issue of the presidential campaign. Florida ranks high in Social Security recipients, and unemployment is substantial at Cape Kennedy. Jackson believes, with good reason, that his advocacy of price and wage controls, plus his support of the aerospace industry and his pro-labor voting record, will give him an advantage. Connecticut Senator Abraham Ribicoff contends that if the voting were held today, "Scoop would win the Florida primary."

A victory in Florida would greatly enhance Jackson's chances in '72, though it would hardly guarantee him the nomination. It would most certainly throw a scare into some party regulars. Jackson's longtime hawkishness has made him anathema to the party's doves and to the young. Consequently, were he nominated, he would be the one Democrat most likely to trigger a revolt, and hence a fourth party on the Democratic left. That would split the Democratic vote and virtually reassure Nixon's reelection.

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