Dangerous Deadline for the Middle East

THROUGHOUT the Middle East this week, devout Moslems are beginning the annual observance of Ramadan, the month of sunup-to-sundown fasting. This year Ramadan coincides with a possibly more momentous date. Five days after the fast begins, the 90-day cease-fire between Egypt and Israel is scheduled to end. Most likely the truce will continue, but on a de facto basis and not by a formal extension of the original cease-fire arranged by U.S. Secretary of State William Rogers.

Audible Grumbling. Cairo and Jerusalem are aware of the fragility of such an arrangement. Both are under pressure from their war-weary people to keep the guns silent. In the face of rising prices for meat, rice and vegetables, inadequate transportation and telephone service, and a nagging water shortage in Cairo, Egyptians are beginning to grumble audibly--and Gamal Abdel Nasser is no longer around to hush them. Few are eager to resume the war with Israel. But President Anwar Sadat, who took over last month after Nasser's death, is also aware that significant numbers of his constituents--most notably the armed forces--are becoming increasingly desperate about recovering territory lost to Israel in the 1967 war. Thus Sadat has mixed bellicose words with quiet signals of Egypt's desire to avoid a resumption of shooting.

One quiet signal came in the form of a dispatch from the United Nations to the authoritative Cairo newspaper Al Ahram. Previously, the Sadat administration said it would not extend the truce unless Israel agreed to resume peace talks under the aegis of Mediator Gunnar Jarring. In the Al Ahram story, Egyptian diplomats indicated that they would extend the cease-fire even without agreement on resumption of talks, but only for a 60-day period.

Lights On. Meanwhile, Sadat showed up at the Suez front and told his troops to be prepared to "fight at any minute." Egypt would not be frightened, he said in a speech, "even if the U.S. gives every Israeli a tank." Interior Minister Shaarawi Gomaa scheduled air-raid drills for Cairo and Alexandria, but more moderate elements in Sadat's government prevailed on the President to cancel them. In addition, night lights on the Nile River bridges were turned on for the first time since January, when Israel launched the first of its deep-penetration air-raids in response to Nasser's "war of attrition."

At the United Nations, 19 Afro-Asian nations on behalf of Egypt introduced a tough resolution deploring Israel's continued occupation of Arab territories seized during the Six-Day War of 1967. Foreign Minister Mahmoud Riad opened the debate by declaring that three years of quiet diplomacy had failed, "due to Israel's insistence on expansion on the one hand, and the support it receives from the U.S. on the other." Foreign Minister Abba Eban again called on Cairo to "rectify" the uneasy situation along the Suez Canal by pulling back all or most of the missiles that the Egyptians, in violation of agreements, have moved into the area since the cease-fire began in August.

Closing the Gap. In Tel Aviv, Intelligence Chief Major General Aharon Yariv, who had never previously allowed himself to be identified in dispatches, filled in the details of the violations for correspondents. When the cease-fire began in August, he said, the Egyptians had 16 batteries and fewer than 100 missiles in the Suez area. Now, he went on, they have almost 50 batteries and 300 missiles, most of them within 18 miles of the canal. Yariv, his left arm chopping the air as he emphasized points, and silver paratrooper wings gleaming on his tunic, described the Suez system as "one of the most advanced missile networks in the world."

Because a majority of the 127 nations that comprise the General Assembly are anti-Israel, the pro-Egyptian resolution would normally stand a strong chance of passing. But the U.S. came to Israel's rescue by tabling its own proposal merely reaffirming the U.N. resolution of November 1967, which asked for Israeli withdrawal in return for recognition of a Jerusalem regime within secure boundaries. The U.S. resolution also called for extension of the Rogers ceasefire.

The U.S. maneuver appeared to blunt the resolution criticizing Israel. At week's end a group of Latin American nations were prepared to introduce a compromise proposal that would attempt to close the gap between the U.S. and Egypt by softening anti-Israel references.

Bolstering Defenses. Israel last week seemed to be going out of its way to sound belligerent. Chief of Staff Haim Bar-Lev, attending graduation ceremonies for officer candidates, expressed the hope that "if the fighting resumes, you will again show the Egyptians that the use of force does not pay." Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, hosting a garden party for visiting U.S. representatives of the United Jewish Appeal, warned that "if the war on the canal should resume, they shall be beaten."

The Israelis readily admit that they are hardening their fortifications along the canal. "It would be a big mistake to think that the Israelis have been wasting their time," reported TIME'S David Halevy after touring the Suez front. "I didn't recognize some of the areas I traveled through, and I was last here less than three months ago. Roads have been improved. Positions have been strengthened. Many innovations have been made. Israel's tactical and even strategic position is better than ever before. 'Bless the Americans for giving us those 90 days,' one top kick told me. 'We are ready.' " For what? An Israeli colonel told Halevy: "For anything. We don't trust the Egyptians. In fact, we expect them to open fire to bid the truce goodbye." If the shooting does resume when the cease-fire expires, Israelis expect it to begin with occasional rounds from snipers and to escalate until the Egyptians begin firing the immense, Soviet-made 203-mm artillery pieces that they recently acquired.

The Israelis were also bolstering their defenses in more significant ways (see box). U.S. pilots flew 18 Phantoms into Israel as part of a $500-million aid package that also includes nearly 200 U.S. tanks. Each of the pilots was paid $ 1,500 for the seven-hour flight from the McDonnell Douglas aircraft plant in St. Louis--about what commercial pilots earn--and flown home aboard El ,.A1.

The F-4E Phantoms arrived bearing water-soluble U.S. Air Force markings. The five-point U.S. stars and bars were quickly washed away and six-point Israeli Stars of David replaced them--in permanent paint.

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