Swift Succession

Egypt's constitution allowed up to 60 days for the country to select a successor to President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Only nine days were needed. Last week, in Cairo's Victorian National Assembly building, 353 members of the Assembly formally selected Vice President Anwar Sadat as the new leader of the country. This week the populace will vote in a yes-or-no national referendum. The outcome is so certain that preparations are already under way for Sadat's inauguration two days later.

Egypt's leaders had sound reasons for their haste in selecting a new President. At a crucial time in the country's history, no one in the government wants to present a picture of indecision. Moreover, Sadat and other leaders were under considerable pressure from the Soviet Union to present an appearance of peaceful succession. Soviet Premier Aleksei Kosygin, who rushed to Cairo within a day after Nasser's death, held three lengthy meetings with Sadat, former Prime Minister Ali Sabry and War Minister Mohammed Fawzi. Repeatedly, Kosygin stressed the need for "unity and continuity," and suggested that a collective leadership might be the answer, as it was for Russia after Stalin's death and after Khrushchev's downfall.

Soviet Diagnosis. Anxious to protect their huge investment in arms and influence in Egypt, the Russians have been prepared for some time to cope with a new leadership. Hassanein Heikal, Al Ahram editor and Minister of Guidance, revealed in his newspaper last week that Nasser twice had thought about resigning because he was in increasing pain from diabetes, circulatory ailments and heart disease. No one knew this better than the Russians; it was their doctors who had been treating Nasser for his various disorders and who undoubtedly passed on their clinical charts to the members of the Politburo.

If the Russians had a specific choice for successor, it was more likely Sabry than Sadat. Former secretary-general of the Arab Socialist Union, Egypt's only political party, Sabry was the most pro-Soviet of all of Nasser's advisers. But he was a difficult choice to put over. Not only is his health almost as bad as Nasser's was--he has a heart condition--but his personality is about as drab as Sadat's. Nevertheless, Sadat is likely to share considerable power with Sabry and Interior Minister and former Chief of Intelligence Shaarawi Gomaa, who has emerged as a strong contender for leadership. To see that this troika continues Nasser's policy of close relations with the Kremlin, Moscow last week announced the appointment of Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir M. Vinogradov, 49, as ambassador to Cairo. Vinogradov was an impressive replacement for the late ambassador, Sergei A. Vinogradov (no kin), who before his death two months ago was a kind of proconsul overseeing the 12,000 to 15,000 Russians in Egypt.

The first order of business for Sadat is setting up the priorities for his new government. He has a choice of renewing the shooting war with Israel, which has lapsed since a 90-day U.S.-initiated cease-fire went into effect in August, or carrying on temporarily a war of words. Foreign Minister Mahmoud Riad gave some indication of which way Cairo might go when he launched an unusually vituperative attack on U.S. imperialism. When Washington, in a new protest against the movement of Soviet-built missiles toward the Suez Canal, announced that the U.S. was withdrawing from the non-ambassadorial sessions of the Four-Power Middle East talks in New York until there was some "rectification" of the moves, Riad said: "Egypt will not withdraw a single missile from the Suez Canal."

Egypt maintains that the SA-2 and SA3 ground-to-air missiles were already in the cease-fire zone when the truce took effect and are now merely being moved about to prevent a pre-emptive Israeli strike. But both Israeli and U.S. reconnaissance indicate that the operational missiles are steadily being pushed closer and closer to the Suez Canal; they are now as close as twelve miles (see map). Approximately 20 to 30 sites are operational, and another 100 ready for more missiles, although some of these may have been dug merely to be filled in again in a future demonstration of good faith. There are also ten dummy batteries of missiles that are moved to confuse the Israelis.

Buoyant Feeling. Israel manifests alarm over the movements because the missiles can now reach over Israeli-held territory. Last week Jerusalem made its 21st and 22nd complaint about the violations to the United Nations, charging that the Egyptians had been digging additional sites even during Nasser's funeral. To counter the missiles, Israeli troops are busily reinforcing their defense line on the eastern side of the canal, an activity that is also a violation of the standstill agreement.

Apart from missile nervousness, however, the Israelis have been greatly buoyed by the uncertainty prevailing in Egypt in the wake of Nasser's death, and by the turmoil created in Jordan as a result of the army-guerrilla civil war. The two events take much of the pressure off Israel's defense positions for the time being. To further enhance its security, however, Israel has been using the grace period to shore up its other borders. A new road has been bulldozed from the Judaean foothills along the length of the western Dead Sea bank, enabling Israeli patrols to spot fedayeen moving over the water by boat from Jordan. Another road has been blasted out on the rocky slopes of Mount Hermon overlooking Lebanon. The road will permit the Israelis to supervise a section of Lebanese frontier they call Fatahland because it contains so many guerrillas.

Rifles Within Reach. Israel felt confident enough last week to relax for the first time in many months. Defense Minister Moshe Dayan, who said recently that the war may be entering its final phase, left his office, picked up a shovel and went off to follow his favorite pastime of archaeological digging. Chief of Staff Haim Bar-Lev joined 22,000 other fans at a soccer game in Tel Aviv, and Jack Benny appeared in a semiserious concert with the Israeli Philharmonic. At week's end the nation halted all activity for Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. Just before the holiday, Bar-Lev spoke on the effects of the crises in Egypt and Jordan: "It is possible that these factors will prepare the Arab states for a peaceful settlement with Israel. But it is also possible that the Arab states will continue to follow the war path they have followed for over 20 years." Premier Golda Meir, in similar fashion, cautioned that "the war is not yet over." Troops in forward positions needed no reminder. Many marked the Day of Atonement with prayer books in their hands but with their rifles in easy reach.

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