Shadow Over the Cease-Fire

ISRAEL is rarely less comfortable I about its dependence on Washington than when the U.S. tries to act both as ally and Middle East peacemaker. Last week, almost before the ink had dried on a U.S.-arranged cease-fire between Israel and Egypt, the government of Premier Golda Meir issued a sudden, stunning alarm that the agreement had been violated. Israel had proof, Defense Minister Moshe Dayan said, that Egypt and the Soviet Union had whisked new missiles into the cease-fire zone, although both sides were specifically forbidden, according to the truce, to "change the military status quo" there. The time had come, Israel demanded, for the U.S. to perform its duty as both ally and peacemaker and get the weapons out.

TIME learned that the Israelis are convinced that a systematic military buildup --involving men and tanks as well as missiles--took place inside the "standstill zone" on the first two nights of the ceasefire. The evidence was recorded in a series of photographs, most of them taken during aerial reconnaissance missions early the mornings of Aug. 8 and 9. According to Israeli analysts, the photos clearly showed that SA-2 and SA3 missile batteries had been moved roughly halfway inside the 32-mile-wide Egyptian cease-fire zone toward areas near the towns of Kantara and Ismailia (see map opposite). Altogether, eight batteries were installed, with some work completed on the second night after the truce was declared.

In addition, the Israeli evidence showed the introduction of major electronic listening devices, some 1,100 tanks and four divisions of Egyptian soldiers. The equipment and troops, say the Israelis, were moved into the cease-fire zone with the assistance of Russian engineers and technicians, who set up the missile and radar sites.

Excellent Record. After hearing that evidence, the Israeli Cabinet immediately dispatched back to Washington Ambassador Yitzhak Rabin, who had been recalled to Jerusalem only three days before. He carried in his attache case a complete set of the photographs and other evidence. The next day, Rabin personally handed the material to Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Sisco. Back in Jerusalem, Dayan put pressure on the U.S. Speaking to the Knesset, he publicly charged Egypt and Russia with the cease-fire violation. Dayan saved some of the sternest parts of his speech for the U.S. "We see the Americans as more than just onetime mediators," he said. "They bear a heavy responsibility, since they initiated the ceasefire, and we agreed to it only after they had informed us that the Soviets would abide by the standstill."

Israel's record for intelligence gathering has been generally excellent, and U.S. officials privately admitted that they were unable to disprove the charges. Even so, after exhaustive study of their own and Israeli evidence, Washington analysts felt that none of it in disputably proved a cease-fire breach: at week's end the State Department was preparing to announce that it had "no conclusive evidence of a deliberate violation."

For one thing, there was the chance that the Russians and Egyptians had moved the highly mobile SA3 missiles from one point to another within the cease-fire zone without actually introducing new weapons. Another possible explanation was the abrupt timing of the truce. When U.S. Ambassador to Israel Walworth Barbour called on Dayan at noon on Friday, Aug. 7, the American diplomat suggested that the truce begin at midnight Saturday. Replied Dayan: "Let's make it now." Egypt and Russia reluctantly agreed to stop the shooting at midnight on Friday. Dayan was well aware of large-scale movements then in progress near the Canal, and he obviously hoped to stop them by asking for a quick ceasefire. The Egyptians and Russians may have decided to go ahead and complete their deployments, which were already under way. Egypt, for its part, did not deny the Israeli charges. Instead, it accused Israel of mounting an organized campaign to "wiggle out" of the ceasefire acceptance.

Slim Hopes. Whatever the foundation of Dayan's accusations, the U.S. was indeed obligated to look into them. Before accepting the terms of Secretary of State William Rogers' cease-fire proposal, the Israeli Cabinet demanded --and got--several key assurances from Washington. The most important was a U.S. pledge not to permit any change in the military balance to the disfavor of the Israelis during the ceasefire.

If Israel's intelligence later proves substantially correct, Washington's problem will be how to make good on its word without fracturing whatever slim hopes still remain for permanent peace. Any proven breach of good faith on the part of the Soviet Union, which gave every appearance of supporting Rogers' effort, might torpedo hope for a Middle East settlement in the near future --and cause a serious setback in U.S.Soviet relations besides.

Even if investigation of Israel's complaint should prove only the completion of military emplacements already under way before the cease-fire took effect, the U.S. has basically only two unpleasant alternatives: a pointblank demand for the Soviet Union to remove the new hardware, or U.S. shipments of equally powerful arms to Israel, including anti-missile electronic gear and jets that Israel has repeatedly requested since last September. The peril in the first course is that it sets up precisely the big-power confrontation that both the U.S. and the Soviet Union have tried to avoid in the Middle East. The second option is dangerous because it could touch off a new spiral in the arms race. Either course of action would certainly risk a breakdown in the Arab-Israeli talks that are scheduled to be held under the auspices of U.N. Diplomat Gunnar Jarring.

U.S. Backing. The talks were already in jeopardy. The Israeli Cabinet refused to nominate a representative to deal with Jarring until it received a satisfactory reply about the Russian missiles from the U.S. Explained Tourism Minister Moshe Kol, normally a Cabinet dove: "The talks will not succeed if a mutual confidence with the U.S. does not continue." Foreign Minister Abba Eban. who is likely to be the Israeli representative, concurred with the decision. However, he is known to believe that the talks should proceed even if the truce is permanently broken, as long as Israel has full U.S. backing.

That backing, more than anything else, is what Israel wants--and feels it is not getting. Golda Meir, for example, was furious because the State Department's formal letter to the U.N.. conveying both sides' acceptance of the Rogers plan, noted that Israel agreed, as part of a peace settlement, to withdraw from occupied Arab territory. However, it did not stipulate, as Mrs. Meir insisted it should, that the withdrawal be to "secure and agreed borders," which Israel privately argues must include several pieces of occupied territory: a strip of land along the Gulf of Aqaba to Sharm el Sheikh, the Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights, and all of Jerusalem.

The U.S. explained that the letter did not list the other side's negotiating conditions either, and anyway, that negotiations will be based on the U.N. resolution of Nov. 22, 1967, which does mention secure and recognized borders. But that did not lessen Israel's growing sense of insecurity.

Withering Campaign. The Israelis are worried about an Egyptian-Soviet buildup across the canal for very specific military reasons. The firing range of the SAM missiles they claim were emplaced after the cease-fire began extends eastward over the canal, giving the Egyptians and their Soviet advisers theoretical control of the air over some Israeli-held territory. Without air cover, the Bar-Lev Line along the east bank of the Suez is vulnerable to amphibious attack from the Egyptian side. The Israelis still believe that they could knock out an Egyptian offensive, but they reckon on far higher casualties than before in doing so.

Most of the buildup, says Israel, could occur only in the absence of the Israeli air force's withering campaign on the Egyptian side of the canal. The almost constant bombing and strafing, which caused an estimated 1,000 casualties each month, reportedly left many Egyptian army units in near disarray--and even caused some Soviet soldiers to refuse duty near the canal. Moscow's answer was to give increasingly heavy command responsibility to Russian soldiers. At the time of the ceasefire, according to authoritative Israeli estimates, Russians controlled all of Egypt's missiles and computers, four strategic air-bases, most jet aircraft, and all reconnaissance work down to the platoon level. Except for ground troops, as one well-informed Israeli official put it, "we were fighting the Red Army."

Swiss Cheese. However questionable its future, the Suez cease-fire lasted its first week without a single casualty. Troops on both sides sunned themselves in the open. From the first dawn of the ceasefire, Egyptians had splashed nude in the Suez. Last week the more restrained Israelis also ventured into the canal's waters, but they were instructed to keep on their flak jackets. The ceasefire also allowed newsmen to view the devastation wrought on the Egyptian side of the canal by Israeli bombing and shelling. Reported TIME Correspondent Lee Griggs: "In Ismailia, the towering twelve-story Suez Canal Authority headquarters looks like a giant piece of Swiss cheese, shredded with shell holes. The railway yards were a mass of twisted wreckage. Tall palm trees had been blackened by napalm or broken off by shellfire."

On the other fronts, Israel was still faced with a shooting war. Six Israelis were killed by fedayeen attacks; five of them died when their Jeep ran over a mine while they were driving to a sunflower field near their settlement in the Golan Heights. Twenty-five others were injured in attacks that were staged from commando hideouts in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. The Israelis retaliated by killing 14 and capturing 26 fedayeen infiltrators, and sent planes on bombing raids on enemy staging areas in Jordan and Lebanon. Said the leader of a small settlement on the Lebanese border: "At least the troops down south are getting a rest. The cease-fire has not changed life at all for us." But at week's end came a rare act of mercy. In an unusual gesture, the Egyptians returned to Israel a badly wounded pilot, who had been shot down on August 3 during a raid on Egyptian positions along the Suez Canal.

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