Relief for Egypt, Anxiety for Israel

THE lights of Cairo, partially blacked out since January as a precaution against Israeli air raids, blinked brightly again last week. Atop the control tower at Cairo Airport, the beacon shone once more into the night. Once more, too, the strings of lights that decorate restaurants along the banks of the Nile danced over the dark waters. Obviously, the Egyptians no longer felt nearly so apprehensive about the possibility of Israeli air raids. The reason? During the past month, the Russians who now help man Egypt's defense have not only set up new SA3 antiaircraft missiles to protect Egyptian cities, but have also begun to fly Egyptian-marked MIG-21s over Egyptian territory to defend those sites from Israeli intruders.

The new Russian involvement naturally upset the Israelis, who last week made headlines throughout the world by announcing that Soviet pilots were aloft with loaded cannon over Egypt. Actually, more than 100 Soviet pilots have been flying in Egypt for at least two years, training Egyptian pilots. The new factor is that they have begun to patrol a picket line west of the canal and over Egyptian cities.

Seeking Coexistence. Though Soviet aircraft have avoided the direct combat area over Suez, the Israelis branded the Russian role as "alarming." Said Jerusalem: "The Soviet decision to dispatch what are to all intents and purposes regular units of the Soviet air force against Israel is without precedent and parallel." Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser could hardly be expected to see it that way. At a May Day rally near Cairo, he ridiculed the Israeli charges of Soviet involvement as "a great comedy." Declared Nasser: "The Soviet Union is not helping us launch aggression. It is helping us liberate our occupied lands."

Russia's new role in the Middle East air represents a significant increase in Soviet involvement, since it seriously limits the striking scope of Israel's most potent weapon, its airpower. In addition to equipping and training Egypt's armed forces, the Soviets have, in effect, assumed an important share of responsibility for the air defense of the country's cities and industrial areas. For the Israelis, this means that the highly effective option of striking deep into Egypt can no longer be taken without fear of a direct confrontation with the Russians. At the same time, Egyptian pilots, who are in short supply, will be partially freed from defensive roles to turn their none-too-impressive talents against positions in Israeli-occupied territory.

To avoid an aerial encounter with the Soviets, the Israelis have not flown deep-penetration raids into Egypt since April 13. Defense Minister Moshe Dayan has openly declared that Israel must seek a coexistence with the Soviets in the skies above Egypt. By that he means that Israel will restrict its raids to the immediate canal area if the Soviets will keep their aircraft only over Egyptian cities. So far, that uneasy modus vivendi has worked.

Emboldened by Soviet protection, the Egyptians have seized the military initiative for the first time since last July, when Israeli airpower virtually silenced Egyptian batteries along the Suez. Subsequently, Israeli jets began hitting industrial and military targets deep inside Egypt. Cairo last week sent two Russian-made IL-28 bombers to raid the town of El Arish in the northern Sinai, destroying an ice factory and a herd of cattle before Israeli fighters shot down at least one of the planes. Egyptian fighter-bombers also hit Israeli positions along the canal. On three separate occasions, Egyptian commandos launched across-the-canal assaults on Israeli bunkers.

Three Options. By far the most important Egyptian assault, however, has been a renewed artillery barrage along the Suez. Aided by Soviet advisers, the Egyptians have assembled 800 artillery pieces along the canal's 101-mile length and have laid down an accurate and systematic barrage that has sent as many as 1,000 shells an hour crashing into one Israeli fortification. As a result, Israeli casualties --27 killed and 66 wounded in April --have been the highest for the Suez front since last July.

The Israelis understandably sought to dramatize the heightened Soviet involvement. They also warned that they would take on the Russians if their own security was imperiled. "We do not want to inflict casualties on the Soviet pilots or any other pilots," said Premier Golda Meir, "but we have no choice." Later she added: "Other nations can surrender and still live, but we do not have that alternative." Defense Minister Moshe Dayan warned that if aerial coexistence failed, the situation could lead to "something we did not intend--our attacking the Russians and Russians attacking our aircraft. In whatever words you may wish to define it, this means war with the Russians." In addition, Dayan warned that Israel must not allow itself to be maneuvered into a situation in which it would have no option except to obey the dictates of other powers. "Let us not allow things to so develop that one day we find ourselves down to the last bullet," he said.

Unless the U.S. takes a stand in the Middle East strong enough to scare off the Russians--and few expect that they will be easily scared--the Israelis feel that they have only three options: 1) to retain the present borders and hope for the best; 2) to compromise and seek a peace arrangement; or 3) to mobilize and strike hard and fast with the aim of destroying the Egyptian armed forces before the Soviets can bring in sufficient reinforcements.

Sign of Weakness. Golda Meir sent off a private letter to Richard Nixon, but the President, preoccupied with Indochina, said only that his Administration would take "another hard look" at the Israeli request for additional Phantoms and Skyhawks. Israeli diplomats in Washington tried to convince State Department officials that the U.S. refusal to sell more planes to Israel had been interpreted by the Russians as a sign of American weakness. It was doubtful that a U.S. warning, even if Washington decided to issue it, would compel the Soviets to diminish their growing involvement in Egypt. Moreover, as long as the Soviet role remains completely defensive, the U.S. would be hard put to fault it. Nor could the Russians back down without suffering a loss of face in the eyes of the sensitive Arabs.

A clash between Israeli and Soviet pilots would be serious enough, but it is far from certain that it would produce a round of all-out combat in the Middle East, much less start World War III. Since the Soviets have denied that they are flying air defense over Egypt, they are under no obligation to admit to casualties or clashes. Aside from such slender consolation, the increased Soviet role obviously raises ominous "what-if" questions that complicate an already complex and dangerous situation.

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