Rumors of a Rift

Telex machines in newsrooms the world over last week tapped out a sensational story. Under a Vienna dateline, Reuters reported that a power struggle had broken out within the Kremlin. Citing sources in Belgrade and Prague, the article said that three Politburo members--Ideologue Mikhail Suslov, Trade Union Leader Alexander Shelepin and First Deputy Premier Kirill Mazurov --had taken the extreme step of writing a letter that blamed Party Boss Leonid Brezhnev and Premier Aleksei Kosygin for failures in the Soviet economy.

After two days of silence, the Soviet government denied that such a letter existed. Government spokesmen refused to honor the coup rumors with a denial. Neither in Moscow nor abroad was there the slightest evidence of a power struggle--or even of a letter. On the contrary, the Soviet capital was stolidly quiet. There were no signs of unusual military activity except for huge Soviet army maneuvers in Byelorussia --and Brezhnev was on the scene reviewing the exercise with Defense Minister Andrei Grechko.

Secret Speech. Despite the lack of supporting evidence, however, what made last week's rumor so intriguing to Kremlinologists was the serious economic plight of the Soviet Union. Once before, a similar situation presaged a change of leadership; that was in 1964, when Nikita Khrushchev was ousted mainly because of economic troubles. Ever since Brezhnev's secret speech to the Central Committee in mid-December, which stressed grave economic problems, there has been speculation that a change might take place in the top leadership some time this year.

During the past three months, the substance of Brezhnev's speech has been published in Pravda and discussed at closed party meetings throughout the Soviet Union. By all accounts, it was a scathing attack on shortcomings, waste, inefficiency and mismanagement in the economy (TIME, Jan. 26). Brezhnev spoke of lost productivity because of rampant alcoholism. As one example of mismanagement, he reportedly told of a shipment of four expensive construction cranes from East Germany. All four were shipped clear across the country to Vladivostok, but two of them actually were supposed to go to Odessa. They finally arrived in damaged condition at their correct destination.

There was much for Brezhnev to deplore. Due to a combination of mismanagement, bad planning and severe winter storms, industry and agriculture are undergoing sharp slumps. Though the Kremlin claims that industrial production last year increased by 7%, U.S. sources say the actual figure may be as low as 3.5%; in any event, the 1970 planned increase, 6.3%, is the lowest goal for any peacetime year since the first Five Year Plan was introduced in 1928. Agricultural production actually fell 3% last year, and 1969 grain production dropped 10%. Anticipating severe shortages, the Soviets were forced to buy $150 million in wheat from Canada. Such vital industries as ferrous metals, petrochemicals, paper, cement and autos fell far short of their goals.

Birthday Plans. According to reports in Moscow, Brezhnev himself did not escape criticism during the December Central Committee sessions. There are stories that Suslov openly criticized him for his handling of the economy and that Brezhnev acknowledged his shortcomings. Yet all the indications are that Brezhnev and Kosygin survived the attacks, and that the Politburo has closed ranks behind them--for the time being. The only difference seems to be that additional Politburo members, including Suslov, Mazurov and Ukrainian Party Boss Pyotr Shelest, now share in the decision making on economic issues.

At present, the members of the Politburo would undoubtedly seek to postpone any shift of power. The centennial of Lenin's birth will be celebrated next month, and Soviet leaders want to avoid any sign of disharmony that might mar the biggest birthday party ever tossed. After April, the situation may change. Since Brezhnev's remedies for the economy are unlikely to bring about an improvement, there is a distinct possibility that before the 24th Communist Party Congress convenes late this year, new leaders--or new combinations of old and new leaders--may emerge within the Kremlin.

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