Wilbur the Shrewd

Few Congressmen gave President Nixon's welfare reform bill any chance of easy passage when it was introduced last October. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Wilbur Mills was skeptical about the revolutionary proposal, and his opposition would have been fatal to the bill. Some legislators doubted that even Nixon really wanted the measure approved. Therefore, it came as a surprise to everyone, including the President, when Ways and Means first gave the bill its 21-to-3 approval, and then last week sent the legislation to the floor of the House. Even more surprising, Mills agreed to serve as one of its floor managers.

Suspicion. The committee's decision was both tactical and practical. Mills recognized that welfare systems throughout the country are on the brink of collapse and need more than simple repairs. Also, he was caught off guard by the Nixon message, and suspected a political trap. When HEW Secretary Robert Finch began attacking the Ways and Means Committee in public statements for delaying the welfare bill, Mills came to believe that the Administration, with an eye to this year's congressional and gubernatorial elections, was more interested in a campaign issue than welfare reform. Mills thought that Nixon would fail to push for the bill, then charge the Democrats with not caring about people for not having expedited it. His way out of the trap was simple. "If he is playing politics," Mills said, "the thing to do is fix it up and give it to him."

Mills, however, misjudged Nixon's intentions. The President really wanted the bill. He described the committee's approval as "gratifying and encouraging" and called Mills to thank him. "He convinced me of his genuine sincerity for the proposition," said Mills afterward.

The bill that emerged from the Ways and Means Committee was stronger than the one that was sent in. Mills could not support the Administration proposal as drawn; the measure would have added 12 million to the welfare rolls without any real restrictions on eligibility, hiking federal welfare costs from $5.2 billion to $7.6 billion a year. So Mills amended the bill. It still guarantees a minimum income of $1,600 a year to a family of four, even if the family includes wage earners. But the bill now broadens the requirement that those receiving welfare must work if they can or accept job training if they are unemployable. Thus, if an unemployed father refused to accept suitable work or job training, his portion of the federal grant, $500, would be eliminated. The remaining federal funds would be made available to the mother and children through a trustee or local welfare agency.

Soaring Costs. "It's not a welfare program," Mills said of the committee version. "It's a work program. We're taking this out of welfare." But not completely out of politics. One committee amendment will make the bill effective July 1, 1971, well past the congressional elections. The President to report to Congress on its effectiveness one year later. This will place the onus for soaring costs or lack of results squarely on Nixon, and right at the beginning of his 1972 campaign for reelection.

Mills' support virtually assures favorable House action on the bill, probably next week. Amendments on the floor are barred. Senate action should also be fast. The Senate Finance Committee is expected to begin hearings on the measure in early May, send it to the Senate floor in June or July. Though the Senate may increase the bill's benefit levels, the House version is likely to prevail in a conference committee. This means that by August, less than a year after it was introduced, the welfare reform bill may be back on the President's desk, this time for his signature.

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