Changed Atmosphere

Since he took over the presidency, Richard Nixon has operated on the assumption that Hanoi expects to win the Viet Nam War in Washington, as it won an earlier phase against the French in Paris. Last week, in announcing that the U.S. would withdraw 50,000 more troops by April 15, the President took another step to force North Viet Nam to re-examine that basic premise.

Nixon's announcement brought to 110,000 the number of troops scheduled to be removed by next spring. A few critics said that his pace was too slow, others that it was entirely too fast--but there were not too many complaints from either side. The new withdrawal left Nixon slightly behind the timetable he had hoped to beat--former Defense Secretary Clark Clifford's estimate that 100,000 men could be pulled out by no later than the end of 1969. But in Nixon's view, the move served a more important purpose. It helped to mute domestic dissent, making it more difficult for leaders of the slipping antiwar movement to sustain interest in their drive for a faster U.S. disengagement.

Gig to Drag. The change in atmosphere has been remarkably swift. White House aides concede that the protest movement was rapidly gaining momentum at the time of its nationwide Moratorium Day activities of Oct. 15. The President's Nov. 3 speech urging the "silent majority" to speak out gave thrust to the counterprotesters. Yet his defiant attitude toward antiwar demonstrators also energized the massive peace marches in Washington and San Francisco on Nov. 15.

That proved to be a high point. Until recently, says an Administration official, "the home front was running in the French pattern." No longer. Says another Nixon lieutenant: "The steam has gone out of the protest movement." Sam Brown, coordinator of the Viet Nam Moratorium Committee, grudgingly agrees. The President, Brown admits, scored "a tremendous political coup by managing to identify himself with the cause of peace." The antiwar movement, he adds, is suffering a "short-term kind of lethargy."

Other peace leaders hope that it will only be short-term. They see no point in trying to stage other mass rallies, and are worried about possible violence, dwindling funds and the probability that frigid weather will bring disappointing turnouts. "The first time around, a march is a gig--the second time, it's a drag," observes one analyst of the movement. This month's emphasis on low-key community efforts has yielded little publicity, although planned Christmas Eve prayer vigils around the country this week might do better. The Moratorium Committee has also decided to abandon plans to increase its activities by one day each month. Asked Marge Sklencar, one of its coordinators: "What could we do for eight days in May?"

Moving adroitly to exploit the protest doldrums,Defense Secretary Melvin Laird announced last week that troop withdrawals would make possible a 10% cutback in draft calls for 1970--to a total of 225,000. At the same time President Nixon in his ten-minute televised speech again appealed effectively for broad backing. Though Hanoi is counting on "division in the U.S." to bring it victory, he said, the "demonstration of support by the American people for our plan to bring a just peace has dashed those hopes." The statement might have been somewhat premature, but Nixon's support is clearly growing. A Gallup poll published last week showed that even on college campuses Nixon's Viet Nam policies are now approved by 50% of the students. Among the nation's adults, the Administration's war policies enjoy 64% support.

Battlefield reversal would inject new vigor into the protest movement, as the President knows well. In his address, he took note of "one disturbing new development." Communist infiltration into South Viet Nam, he reported, has recently risen "substantially." His aides estimated the rate at some 8,000 men a month, about 70% of last year's unusually high pace. Most of the new troops seem to be moving into sanctuaries along the Cambodian border, prompting some military advisers to predict another coordinated Tet offensive around February or March.

One adviser quoted by the President last week contends that the war in the field is going so well that a new Communist offensive would make little difference because it could not succeed. Sir Robert Thompson, a top British expert on guerrilla warfare who was commissioned by Nixon to reassess the situation in Viet Nam, insists that the enemy is just not capable of mounting an effective drive (see box).

Air of Confidence. Whether the South Vietnamese will be able to handle the Communists as the U.S. withdrawal continues remains uncertain. None of the units replacing U.S. outfits has been tested in sustained heavy combat, and some still suffer high desertion rates and severe shortages of ammunition. But they are now doing more of the fighting, and their fatalities are regularly running four times as high as the figure for U.S. troops. Perhaps most important, the government is belatedly enforcing full mobilization, and claims to have added 88,000 troops in the past six months. That more than covers U.S. withdrawals so far, and brings South Vietnamese troop strength to 1,090,000.

In Saigon, according to TIME Correspondent Marsh Clark, while "statements of optimism are far more muted than in the halcyon days that preceded Tet in 1968, there is an unmistakable air of confidence." For one thing, there is the feeling that pacification has finally taken hold. Moreover, the Thieu regime, says Clark, "is a going concern. While Thieu is not a popular hero, he heads a government that is stable."

Whether the Nixon plan will really work depends on two elements. The first is whether Hanoi resumes all-out offensive tactics, which could set back pacification, increase U.S. casualties and force Nixon to slow the withdrawals. The second is whether the South Vietnamese prove capable of handling the Communists and willing to persevere. "As a nation, they are young, uneducated, poor and very tired," Clark concludes. "But unless the Communists start improving their situation on the battlefield and in the hamlets, we may be surprised to discover the fact of an independent, anti-Communist and quite impertinent South Viet Nam."

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