Roses for the West Germans

All day long a light mist fell on Warsaw, forcing a cancellation of a flyover by Polish air force jet fighters. The bad weather did not, however, inhibit the inevitable big parade. Down the broad Marzalkowska Street rumbled row after row of Soviet-made T-54 and T-55 tanks, followed by self-propelled artillery and mobile missiles. Next came squads of young Polish athletes marching in tight formations that spelled the Roman numerals XXV. The occasion was the 25th anniversary of the establishment of Poland's Communist government.

On the reviewing stand stood Party Leader Wladyslaw Gomulka, who in July 1944 as chief of the Communist resistance movement in Poland helped establish the fledgling Soviet-backed regime and later, because of an ideological dispute with Stalin, was jailed for five years. As part of the festivities, Gomulka invited only fellow leaders who share his tough orthodox beliefs in the need for discipline and Communist unity as well as common borders with Poland. Soviet Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev showed up; so did Czechoslovakia's Party First Secretary Gustav Husak, who last April replaced Reformer Alexander Dubcek. But absent was the most inflexible hard-liner of them all: East German Party Boss Walter Ulbricht. Pleading illness, Ulbricht stayed home and sent Premier Willi Stoph in his place.

Since Ulbricht had looked hale at an East German Politburo meeting only a few days earlier, the old Stalinist was presumably suffering from a case of diplomatic indigestion. Both the Poles and Soviets have been sweet-talking the West Germans of late, an activity as unlikely as it is an anathema to Ulbricht.

In an unprecedented overture, Gomulka has held out the promise of better relations with West Germany in return for Bonn's acceptance of the present Oder-Neisse line as Germany's permanent eastern border. Ulbricht is understandably outraged, since he argues that his German state alone has the right to negotiate about German boundaries in the East. Ulbricht undoubtedly fears that the Poles may be willing to sell him out in order to seek trade and an easing of tensions with the larger, more prosperous half of Germany.

The Poles, as usual, are only following Moscow's lead. Soviet Premier Aleksei Kosygin last week received the West German ambassador in Moscow for the first time in more than a year. Kosygin also had a long and friendly talk in the Kremlin with an important political visitor from West Germany. He was Walter Scheel, the leader of the third-place Free Democratic Party. As West Germany's new President, Gustav Heinemann, a Social Democrat, celebrated his 70th birthday, there were among the presents he received 50 red roses. The sender: the Soviet ambassador to Bonn, Semyon Tsarapkin.

By showing their approval of politicians like Heinemann and Scheel, who both advocate a flexible approach toward the East bloc, the Soviets hope to influence the results of next month's national elections in West Germany. They are, in effect, suggesting that they would cooperate with a government of Socialists and Free Democrats to reduce political tensions in Europe. The implication, of course, is that Chancellor Kurt Kiesinger's Christian Democrats, who have ruled the Federal Republic alone or in coalition since its founding in 1949, are blocking progress along that line.

The Soviet endorsement may, in fact, hurt the Free Democrats and the Socialists far more than it helps them, but that is a gamble the Russians are willing to take. They are presently embarked on a bold all-fronts diplomatic effort. At the June Communist summit in Moscow, Brezhnev proposed the establishment of a mutual defense system in Asia that sounded like a Soviet Far Eastern version of NATO. "Something picked up from John Foster Dulles' garbage heap," sneered the Chinese, the obvious object of Russia's fence building. Though the Soviet plan remains vague, Izvestia last week supplied a couple of details. The Soviet Union would be a member of the pact, and the alliance's aim would be to safeguard present borders throughout Asia.

Soviet Concern. The Soviets seem to have placed top priority on improved relations with the U.S. At the Warsaw meeting, Brezhnev undoubtedly exchanged some dark thoughts with the other leaders about Rumania's independent-minded Nicolae Ceausescu, who during the weekend will play host to President Nixon in Bucharest. Even so, the Soviets seem determined to avoid any outward sign of displeasure that might disturb U.S.-Soviet relations and delay the start of arms-control talks.

By the same token, the Soviets are nervous about Czechoslovakia. A fresh outburst of anti-Soviet demonstrations could trigger another round of direct Soviet military intervention. That, in turn, would be most likely to cause the U.S. to back away from negotiations. Seeking to reassure his Soviet overlords, Gustav Husak reportedly told Brezhnev in Warsaw that his government was prepared to use all necessary measures to keep his people under control. His assurance applies especially to Aug. 21 --the first anniversary of the Soviet invasion.

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