Clarifying the Succession

For years, Spain's favorite guessing game has centered on one question: Who would succeed Generalissimo Francisco Franco? Since Franco, "Caudillo of Spain by the grace of God," had pledged to restore a constitutional monarchy, the choice centered on the two surviving male members of Spain's long-deposed royal family. Would it be the Pretender, Don Juan de Borbon y Battenberg, 56, son of Spain's last King, Alfonso XIII, who dwells in self-imposed exile in Portugal? Or would it be his son, Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon y Borbon, 31, a sports-loving young man who has been educated in Spain and lives there now? Last week the Caudillo moved to bring the guessing to an end by calling for a special session of the Cortes, at which he intends to announce his choice. There is no doubt that it will be Prince Juan Carlos.

Only Instrument. The odds have all along been with the Prince. Franco's relations with Don Juan are cool, the Caudillo has never forgiven the Pretender for a 1945 statement that disapproved of Franco's policies. Don Juan has been considerably less critical since then, but has kept in close touch with opposition circles in Spain from his court-in-exile at the Villa Giralda in the Portuguese coastal resort of Estoril. Many Spaniards consider Don Juan a moderate, even a liberal, who as constitutional monarch would probably not. go along with many authoritarian practices of the Franco era.

By contrast, his son. Prince Juan Carlos, is considered more tractable. Franco has already carefully groomed .him: the Prince holds commissions from the three Spanish service academies, has spent considerable time studying government firsthand in Madrid ministries, lives in a palace close to Franco's, and often spends his time with the Caudillo. Moreover, the Prince is quiet and relatively withdrawn; many of his countrymen regard him with more curiosity than enthusiasm.

Originally, Juan Carlos insisted that he would never accept the throne as long as his father was alive. But last January, in an interview with Spain's official news agency, he remarked that he had come to lean toward "political legality." The Prince meant he accepted the view that Franco was empowered under the present constitutional framework to restore whomever he wished to Spain's throne. Until then, the Prince had shared his father's belief that "dynastic legality" must be maintained and that the Borbon line must not be interrupted. Commenting on the likelihood of Juan Carlos' elevation this week, Monarchist Mariano Robles, a lawyer and opponent of the Franco regime, declared: "It is suicide for the monarchy. It is the beginning of the end. A dictator cannot name a King. A King must succeed according to dynastic law. Otherwise it is not a monarchy, it is just a political game."

Canceled Cruise. Don Juan's followers would heartily agree with that. Word of the impending Franco announcement reached the Pretender just as he was about to leave on a Mediterranean vacation cruise. It was canceled immediately. "This operation is being carried out without taking me into account, or the free will of the Spanish people," Don Juan said in a statement. "I am therefore a spectator to the decisions which will be taken on this matter, and I hold no responsibility in this restoration." There was no mention of abdication. Said one of his court officials: "Don Juan will not abdicate unless he is convinced that this is the only way to save the monarchy." That could set the stage for a showdown between father and son after Franco, now 76, steps down or dies.

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