TWELVE MONTHS TO DELIVER

Crisis. Urgent. Desperate.

THESE terms dominated the conversation of ten big-city mayors after they met with Richard Nixon last week. The urban condition is all that they say it is, and their conference with the President left them little hope for dramatic new federal action very soon.

Nixon will not be easily budged from the premise that expensive, far-reaching social welfare efforts are futile if the war continues indefinitely or if the economy goes sour. Nor is Congress in the mood for grandiose programs right now. Viet Nam and inflation, together with crime and unrest, remain the President's first orders of business. As he told a G.O.P. women's conference: "I ask the women in this audience to hold me and all of my Cabinet colleagues responsible on those three great issues. I will make this promise: next year I will be able to report that we have made real progress toward bringing peace in the world, re-establishing law and order at home, and also in stopping the rise in taxes and inflation. This is our goal. We are not overpromising."

Helping Nonsupporiers. This tone of quiet confidence has been a constant in Nixon's makeup lately. His Gallup and Harris readings indicate that he is more popular now than last November, despite the war, despite campus turmoil, despite spurting prices. Even Rex Tugwell, a charter member of the New Deal, conjectured last week that if the election were held today, Nixon would get 10,000,000 more votes than he did in the fall.

Operating from this strength, Nixon has begun, however cautiously, to risk offending some of those who elected him. Negroes are still suspicious, but many Southern whites who voted Republican in November are unhappy about the Administration's school-integration policy. Last week Nixon went against the advice of some senior aides in recommending repeal of the 7% business-investment tax credit as part of his tax package (see BUSINESS). Repeal of the credit is primarily an anti-inflationary measure, but the predominantly Republican business community will pay the bill. The President's other tax proposals--reducing the burden on the poor, halving the surcharge, which weighs most heavily on those of modest means, shrinking loopholes used mainly by the affluent--also tend to benefit Nixon's nonsupporters more than those who elected him.

Congress, led by House Ways and Means Chairman Wilbur Mills, is likely to demand far more extensive tax reforms than those that the Administration is proposing. Whatever the outcome, both parties will doubtless take credit for redressing longstanding inequities. A President dealing with a Congress controlled by the opposition can hardly hope for much more. Last week, however, the Administration won a minor but perhaps trend-setting victory when enough Democrats deserted their party leadership to vote with the Republicans on an education assistance measure.

Humphrey's Charge. Nixon's first specific crime-control proposals also have political implications. Law and order became an issue last year primarily because of ubiquitous street violence, whether perpetrated by the lone mugger or the faceless mob. The President's recommendations last week aimed at the well-nigh invisible activities of organized crime (see LAW). Attacks by multi-agency "strike forces" will be expanded. New legal tools are sought to get at both gangsters and their political accomplices. While almost any antiriot measure can be construed as anti-Negro, everyone is happy to belabor the Mafia. Nixon's $61 million crime program--which will be followed by messages on narcotics, rights of the accused and obscenity--made good sense and good politics, and has an excellent chance of passage.

The President for the most part has adhered to his strategy of avoiding congressional fights that either promise little chance of victory or encourage Democratic retaliation on other issues. Only his anti-ballistic missile decision has stimulated deep controversy, and on that subject he faced trouble no matter which direction he took. Rather than expend energies and political capital on brawls with Congress, Nixon is hoarding his resources. It does not make for a dynamic posture. It leaves him open to charges such as Hubert Humphrey's last week, that the President has failed "to grasp the urgency of present circumstances." But it does permit the Administration to focus on the problems it considers cardinal, and to plan programs for a post-Viet Nam world.

* From left: Cleaveland's Carl Stokes, Chicago's Richard Daley, New York's John Lindsay, Nixon, Urban Affairs' Pat Moynihan, Syracuse's William Walsh, Boston's Kevin White, and Office of Economice Opportunity Director Donald Rumsfeld.

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