Ayub's Strategic Retreat

President Ayub Khan of Pakistan has been in politics for more than a decade now, but he has not forgotten some of the elementary lessons he learned as a Sandhurst cadet many years ago. Last week, with Pakistan in its fourth month of unprecedented civil disorder and with opposition pressure steadily mounting against him, the former field marshal began a cautious tactical retreat to blunt the onslaught.

The disturbances began last October with student protests over educational conditions. Since then they have developed into massive demonstrations against Ayub's regime, with charges of corruption, nepotism and incompetence as well as demands for constitutional reform and restoration of civil liberties.

Last week a one-day general strike --the fourth in a month -- paralyzed all of Pakistan's major cities. Demonstrators stopped trains, stoned cars and put two government newspapers to the torch.

Virtually all business came to a halt. Police killed four demonstrators, bringing the number of riot deaths since October to around 40, and the army had to be called out to halt the disorders.

Potent Foe. The first sign that Ayub had called a retreat came with the release of hundreds of political detainees, including former Foreign Minister Zulfikar AH Bhutto, now one of his most implacable and potent foes. Under the so-called Defense of Pakistan Rules, emergency laws that Ayub has kept in effect since the Indo-Pakistan war more than three years ago, Bhutto was arrested in mid-November on charges of inciting to riot and endangering the national security. The President's second step was his promise that the emergency regulations would be canceled this week. Despite the fact that he had been freed, Bhutto greeted that announcement with skepticism. He had just begun a protest hunger strike, and he vowed that he would continue his fast until the regulations were indeed withdrawn.

Ayub's most significant move, however, was his offer to discuss constitutional reform with the opposition in the Democratic Action Committee, a loose alliance of eight conservative parties that have been promoting the anti-government campaign. Their demands include a return to the parliamentary system under which Pakistan was ruled before Ayub's bloodless takeover in 1958 and also the abolition of the present presidential election system. Within that Ayub-inspired framework, the President is chosen by 120,000 popularly elected "basic democrats." The opposition charges that the system is susceptible to government patronage and pressure and thus tends to perpetuate Ayub's rule. If it is not abolished, the eight parties plan to boycott basic democrat elections scheduled for late this year.

Far from Unanimous. Ayub's only consolation is that the opposition is far from unanimous on precisely what changes there ought to be. More important, two of Ayub's major opponents profess to be unwilling to negotiate with him. Bhutto, whose Pakistan People's Party is not part of the Democratic Action Committee, has pledged that he will not sit down with Ayub until the President steps down. With the army, the civil service, industry and landowners still backing him, Ayub does not seem likely to do that soon. Moreover, the Awami League, East Pakistan's leading party, also intends to boycott reform negotiations. Its popular leader, Sheik Mujibur Rahman, a fervent advocate of partial autonomy for the eastern wing of Pakistan, is still in jail. He was arrested in mid-1966, and later charged with treason for alleged involvement in a secessionist plot. His followers have threatened to continue their violent demonstrations until the Sheik is released and until their demands for autonomy are met. Thus, with two of the most important opposition leaders on the sidelines, the prospect of negotiations may come to naught. In that case, Ayub will have to devise other Sandhurst stratagems.

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