The Reason for Hawaii

If war is diplomacy by other means, the reverse also is true. As long as peace talks go on in Paris, the pitch and immediate aims of the conflict they are intended to settle in South Viet Nam will be directly related to the negotiations. In hopes of dealing the U.S. another psychological setback comparable to the traumatic Tet attacks, the Communists are reportedly planning a major offensive against South Vietnamese cities (see THE WORLD). Meanwhile, the regime of President Nguyen Van Thieu in Saigon is hag-ridden by uncertainty about the terms on which Washington might agree to end the war. To help calm those jitters, Lyndon Johnson agreed last week to meet Thieu in Hawaii for a two-day conference this coming weekend.

For Thieu, it was a face-saving second best. He had been planning a ten-day official trip to Washington and other U.S. cities with the double-barreled aim of bolstering his prestige at home and burnishing his regime's uncertain reputation in the U.S. Washington, mindful of the predictable demonstrations by antiwar zealots, was cool to the idea of the visit. Eventually, the expected Communist offensive afforded an excuse to Thieu for avoiding a prolonged absence from Viet Nam. Besides, Thieu's running rivalry with Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky made staying close to home a matter of prudence.

Modest Progress. Topping Thieu's list of priorities in Hawaii is his demand for unequivocal assurances from L.B.J. that the Paris parley does not foreshadow unilateral American with drawal from the war. Other requests: a U.S. guarantee of South Viet Nam's territorial integrity, a commitment to uphold his constitutionally elected regime, and a promise that no attempt will be made to arrange a cease-fire by bringing the Viet Cong into a coalition government. Johnson is apparently primed to assuage Thieu's fears, emphasizing that nothing has been held back from Saigon and that no amount of coffee-break talk has persuaded Hanoi's men to cease stonewalling. The U.S. is pledged to demand a seat for Saigon at the bargaining table, if and when the talks turn to the question of South Viet Nam's future.

In return, Thieu can offer only modest progress since his December meeting with Johnson in Canberra. Thieu's new Premier Tran Van Huong has not succeeded in knitting a tangle of political factions into a coherent progovernment coalition, and a promised drive against corruption has not yet gained momentum. But a mobilization of South Vietnamese manpower may be ahead of schedule: instead of 135,000 new Vietnamese troops whose pay, arms and equipment the U.S. had agreed to supply, Thieu will request weapons for 200,000 men, to boost the strength of Viet Nam's armed forces to 1,000,000.

The U.S. is expected to go along. The fury of the Communist Tet offensive has prodded South Vietnamese soldiers to fight with unaccustomed vigor, and the U.S. commander in Viet Nam, General Creighton Abrams, will voice guarded optimism when he briefs the two Presidents on the war's progress. A fact-finding team headed by Defense Secretary Clark Clifford and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Earle G. Wheeler flew to Viet Nam last week to assess military prospects before the meeting.

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