Playing It Safe

In the two years since he took command of the Christian Democratic Union and the nation from Konrad Adenauer, Chancellor Ludwig Erhard has been widely accused of uninspired leadership. Yet when he formally kicked off his first campaign for office this week at a rally in Dortmund's vast Westfalenhalle, he appeared the man most likely to succeed when the nation goes to the polls on Sept. 19.

Main reason, of course, is his popularity with the huge mass of voters less interested in political brilliance than in having a solid man at the helm. What is more, Erhard is the man in the middle of three middle-of-the-road parties, and ideally situated to form a coalition with either of the other two in the likely event that the Christian Democrats once again fail to win an absolute majority.

The latest opinion polls give them 48% of the "decided" vote, as opposed to the 45% they won in the 1961 election under Adenauer's fading leadership. Ever so slightly to the left of them are the Social Democrats, under West Berlin's Mayor Willy Brandt, with 43% of the projected vote, up from 36% in 1961. Almost imperceptibly to the right are the Christian Democrats' junior coalition partners since 1961, Erich Mende's Free Democrats, who won 13% of the vote then, but are conceded only 7% this time.

No Sidecar. For the next six weeks, as the three party leaders crisscross the republic on their campaign trains, their speeches will underline how fundamentally similar their views all are. All three are in favor of "new initiatives" in German reunification and for continuing support of NATO and the European alliance. On domestic issues, there are only some small differences. If Erhard fares well but misses an absolute majority, he will probably call on the more congenial Free Democrats again, but some of his followers are muttering about the possibility of a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats if he does less well.

But not so long as Erhard is running things. Last week he denounced a grand coalition as an S.P.D. "dream that it can coast through the finish line in the C.D.U.'s sidecar." The Socialists' Willy Brandt hinted that he would be only too delighted to join any coalition at all, since such talk could help him in the campaign.

But Brandt is one of Erhard's greatest assets. Cursed with an undistinguished television image and isolated in West Berlin from most voters, he has so far failed to develop into the charismatic personality the Socialists need. Moreover, despite support from students and intellectuals, his party has done little to exploit the latent "time for a change" philosophy that should militate in its favor after 16 years out of power. The party slogan, "Sicker ist sicker" (roughly, "Play it safe") is designed to reassure voters that, despite their Marxist origins, the Socialists are now a respectable, middle-class party --but somehow the words seem more appropriate for, say, the Christian Democrats.

Ad Anger. The sprightliest precampaign politicking has been supplied by the fractious Free Democrats, who are desperately worried lest they win less than 5% of the vote and lose their right to sit in the Bundestag. Their advertisements forcefully remind the electorate that they have not been afraid to walk out of the Cabinet when the Christian Democrats dragged their feet. Many Christian Democrats were so infuriated by the ads that they talked of throwing the Free Democrats out of the coalition--but they relented. No one wanted to reprimand the sinners so severely that they would be tempted to form a coalition after the election with the Socialists instead.

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