Turning the Corner

Almost from the moment that the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, physicists and businessmen have been promising that peaceful and cheap nuclear electricity was just around the corner. The corner has been tough to turn. Early estimates of cost and efficiency were overly optimistic; private utilities were wary in spite of $1.3 billion spent on AEC research and generous Government fuel-cost waivers and reimbursements for design work. But now the corner has been rounded, and commercial nuclear power has gone critical.

In the past eight months, three large atomic-power contracts have been awarded, a fourth bid on, a fifth announced. Eleven nuclear plants are already operating, eight more are under construction, and seven planned.

Fact & Fission. Nuclear power plants are also growing bigger. Six years ago, the first commercial reactor at Shippingport, Pa., generated 60,000 kw. Last week Niagara Mohawk Power announced that it will build a 500,000-kw. plant in upstate New York for $100 million. New York City's Consolidated Edison plans a 1,000,000-kw. plant in Queens. Among others: > Pacific Gas & Electric's on Bodega Head, Calif. (325,000 kw.), due for 1966 completion at a $61 million cost.

> Southern California Edison's in partnership with San Diego Gas & Electric, at Camp Pendleton, Calif. (395,000 kw.) for 1966 at $100 million.

> Los Angeles City Water & Power Department's, at Corral Beach, Calif.

(590,000 kw.), to be in operation by 1967 and cost $96.6 million.

> Jersey Central Power & Light's, at Oyster Creek, NJ. (500,000 kw.), a $90 million job bid on last week.

> Connecticut Yankee Atomic Power's (463,000 kw.), a joint operation by twelve New England utilities to be built at Haddam Neck, Conn., by 1967 for $80 million.

Electrical companies can build on this scale because they are pooling more power over longer interconnecting lines. At the same time, the AEC has encouraged experimentation on reactors that would be bigger and better than current ones that use water to transfer their heat. General Dynamics is working on a reactor that transfers its heat by gases; North American Aviation is experimenting with a sodium-graphite reactor; Babcock & Wilcox is developing a heavy-water reactor.

When Giants Battle. At present, the sales field is dominated by General Electric and Westinghouse, both pushing their own types of water reactors in a competition that one engineer says "is reducing costs faster than scientists ever could." Westinghouse holds an edge in the U.S. market: it won the last three contracts (for Connecticut Yankee and the two Los Angeles plants), and has an inside track on Con Ed's New York plant, for which it did the design research. The two companies are knocking heads over Jersey Central's reactor; for General Electric's prestige, that contract is almost a must.

Lower-unit-cost reactors and higher output make atomic power closely competitive with fossil fuels in such high-cost areas as California and New England. After three years, the Yankee Atomic Electric plant at Rowe, Mass., is producing power within 1 mill per kw-h of conventional costs (about 10 mills). Pacific Gas & Electric's first atomic plant at Humboldt Bay, Calif., which went critical two months ago, is expected to equal natural-gas costs at 9 mills. P. G. & E. plans to build twelve more atomic power plants by 1980, and the AEC estimates that commercial atomic power will be competitive everywhere within five years.

Human Reactions. Now that cold costs are coming under control, the industry must wrestle with human apprehensions over safety. Northern Californians have protested that P. G. & E.'s Bodega Head site is too near the San Andreas fault, whose shift caused the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Thick shields and other safety devices have reduced some fears but raise the price of atomic power.

The atomic surge has compelled producers of conventional fuels to refine their own systems, lowering still further the competitive cost point that atomic fuel must reach. Power men are convinced that atomics will surmount this competition when the second generation of reactors arrives. Last week the AEC announced that its Idaho Falls testing station has generated electricity for the first time from plutonium, which actually re-creates itself as it produces power. That breakthrough will speed the arrival of advanced "breeder" reactors that will come close to satisfying man's quest for eternal energy.

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