The Price of Silence

Until last week Chancellor Konrad Adenauer's Christian Democrats had won a majority among the rural, conservative voters of Rhineland-Palatinate in every election since the West German Republic was founded in 1949. But the latest vote for the state legislature gave the C.D.U. only 46 of 100 seats, and 44.4% of the popular vote, a loss of 4% since the 1959 election. The Socialists, by contrast, moved up from 37 seats to 43 in the conservative stronghold, taking 40.7% of the vote, a gain of nearly 6%. Cried Socialist Spokesman Fritz Barsig: "The ice is finally broken."

The C.D.U. would continue to govern Rhineland-Palatinate in coalition with the Free Democrats, but it was clear that its loss there was the most damaging that the party had suffered in five state elections in the past 16 months. Taking stock, C.D.U. officials were now certain that the fault lay with der Alte's obstinate fight to hang onto his post, blocking the succession of Economics Minister Ludwig Erhard.

Despite Adenauer's towering contempt for him. "Uncle Ludwig" is by far the most popular politician in the country; a recent public-opinion poll showed that he is regarded by 25% of the voters as the best man to succeed Adenauer, whereas Socialist Leader Willy Brandt is favored by only 12%. But with federal elections only two years away, 32% of those polled now look on the Socialists as the "most sympathetic party," while only 30% so regard the C.D.U. A three-man C.D.U. committee chosen to name the next Chancellor appears convinced that only Erhard can reverse the tide. But Adenauer holds out against a quick decision. For the Socialists, who hope to whittle C.D.U. margins even more dramatically in four other state elections before mid-1964, der Alte's continued silence can be golden.

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