The Crowded Middle

Democratic enthusiasts claimed victory --they called it "commanding," "massive," "smashing" and "a landslide." Some landslide. In arithmetical terms, the off-year elections of 1962 were almost a standoff. And in their portent to U.S. politics for the next two years, they meant difficult legislative going for the Democratic Kennedy Administration and the possibility of real trouble in 1964. The overall results:

sb GOVERNORS. Numerically, it was a draw. With some races so close that the official results might not be known for weeks, it appeared that Democrats had taken over six chairs previously held by Republicans; it also seemed that Republicans had won six Democratic seats. But Republicans tallied their great triumphs in the big industrial states--New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The G.O.P. winners in three of these states automatically became presidential factors. By handsomely winning re-election in New York, Nelson Rockefeller stood as the front runner for his party's 1964 nomination. If Rocky slips, Michigan's George Romney and Pennsylvania's William Scranton could move to the forefront.

sb THE SENATE. Democrats dropped two seats they had held in the 87th Congress --but they picked up six that Republicans had held. This certainly was a victory, but it didn't make much difference to the legislative future. The results merely increased the already lopsided Democratic Senate majority to 68-32; and the performance of the 87th Congress showed that a big Democratic majority does not necessarily mean clear sailing for New Frontier legislation.

sb THE HOUSE. Republicans had hoped to pick up from 15 to 20 seats--not nearly enough to take control of the House. On the other hand, President Kennedy had campaigned as no President before him for Democratic Congressional candidates. He argued that a Democratic gain would ensure passage of his programs. He failed to get that gain. Instead, the Democrats will have four fewer seats than they had before the election. The House line-up in the 88th Congress will be 259 Democrats and 176 Republicans. The same conservative Democratic committee chairmen who resisted the New Frontier before will still be there. On the record of the 87th Congress, that spells legislative problems for the New Frontier.

Across the U.S., extremists of both the right and the left suffered. The middle of the road--or perhaps its slightly conservative lane--was crowded. The message of that conservative consensus, the mandate that it seemed to have picked up from the voters, was: the Federal Government should do less at home, in the way of welfare projects, and more abroad, in the act of fighting Communism.

Ticket splitting was the rule: California, for example, elected a Democratic Governor and a Republican Senator; Pennsylvania, Ohio and Oklahoma did just the opposite, choosing Republican Governors and Democratic Senators.

Democrats broke into traditional Republican strongholds in New England; Republicans made their best showing since Reconstruction in the South. In a dozen states, the voters split almost down the center of the party dividing line; rarely before in U.S. political history had there been elections in which so many Republican and Democratic candidates were separated by so few votes.

The only issue that seemed to make much difference was Cuba--and that issue certainly redounded to the Democrats. Of all Republican candidates, Indiana's Republican Senator Homer Capehart, California's Gubernatorial Hopeful Richard Nixon, Pennsylvania's Senate Candidate James Van Zandt and Minnesota's Veteran Representative Walter Judd had been arguing hardest and longest for a tough U.S. policy toward Cuba. President Kennedy took the issue away from them --and all four lost.

Many Democrats took great comfort in the fact that they had held down the losses ordinarily expected of the party in White House power during off-year elections. But that political cliche was not relevant to 1962; among other things. Democrats had lost 21 congressional seats even while Kennedy was winning in 1960; they therefore had fewer to lose this year. And downright disturbing to the Democratic future were the Republican gubernatorial wins in the big industrial states. That fact was acutely recognized by John Kennedy and the pragmatic politicians who surround him in the White House. Perhaps the best summary of the 1962 elections was uttered by a Kennedy aide. "The big states!" he groaned as he studied the returns. "The big states! The big states!"

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