SENATE SCORECARD

Of the 39 U.S. Senate seats up for contest this fall, 21 are held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. And, barring an unexpected tide, the 64-to-36 Democratic majority of the 87th Congress is likely to stay much the same in the 88th. Such is the unpredictability of voters that elections often bring startling surprises, with some incumbents who had seemed safe losing after all, and some who had seemed to be in danger actually winning by huge margins. But as of last week, without benefit of hindsight, the line-up looked like this:

SAFE DEMOCRATIC SEATS--12

Alabama. The Republican Party is putting on its most vigorous performance in years, hitting at the Kennedy Administration's armed intervention in neighboring Mississippi. But the G.O.P. has no serious hope of unseating Democrat Lister Hill.

Alaska. Senator Ernest Gruening, territorial Governor back in pre-statehood days, is challenged by Republican Ted Stevens, a former U.S. attorney only half Gruening's age (38 to 75). But Stevens will probably have to wait a while.

Arizona. Carl Hayden, oldest member of the Senate in both age (85) and tenure (since 1927), seems sure to win over State Senator Evan Mecham, a right-winger backed by the John Birch Society. Most doubts dissolved last month when two conservative Phoenix newspapers strongly endorsed Hayden.

Florida. "Gorgeous George'' Smathers is sure to be reelected.

Georgia. The G.O.P. did not post a candidate against Senator Herman Talmadge.

Louisiana. Senator Russell B. Long faces only token opposition.

Missouri. Democrat Edward V. Long, elected in 1960 to fill out an unexpired term, is contested by wealthy Crosby Kemper, a Republican convert who was an active Democrat as recently as 1960. Towering (6 ft. 7 in.) Candidate Kemper, 35, has waged a strenuous campaign, harping on the theme that Long is a "rubber stamp" for the Administration. So he is--and so he is likely to continue.

Nevada. In a predominantly Democratic state, colorless, careful Senator Alan Bible seems certain to beat Cattle Rancher William B. Wright, a Goldwater Republican.

North Carolina. Senator Sam J. Ervin Jr. can rest easy on election night.

Ohio. Nobody in Ohio can beat Frank J. Lausche, who won five terms as Governor before going to the Senate in 1956.

South Carolina. The only issue in the campaign, says Senator Olin Johnston, is "one fella has the job and the other fella wants it." The other fella is William D. Workman Jr.. newspaper columnist who formally joined the Republican Party only last fall. He is waging the most formidable Republican campaign for the Senate in South Carolinians' memories. But it is not quite formidable enough.

Washington. Senator Warren G. Magnuson, a skilled politician with no pretensions to statesmanship, should defeat Richard G. Christensen, sometime Lutheran minister making his first try for office.

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DOUBT--9

Arkansas. In past defenses of his Senate seat, J. William Fulbright merely went through the motions of campaigning. But under the leadership of G.O.P. National Committeeman Winthrop Rockefeller (brother of Nelson), the Republican Party has made a remarkable upsurge in Arkansas, and Fulbright faces a strenuous challenger in Republican Kenneth G. Jones, prosperous orthopedic surgeon who calls himself a "constitutionalist" and proclaims that "liberalism is socialism." Still, it would take a pretty deep plunger to bet against Fulbright.

Colorado. Incumbent John A. Carroll, undeviating supporter of New Frontier legislation, is running scared in a neck-and-neck race against Republican Congressman Peter H. Dominick.

Hawaii. With elderly Senator Oren E. Long retiring, slum-born Democratic Congressman Daniel Ken Inouye, a Nisei, is competing for the seat against Benjamin Franklin Dillingham II, scion of Hawaii's most prominent family. Starting out way behind, Republican Dillingham narrowed the gap while Inouye was kept glued in Washington. But there still appears to be a bit of gap left.

Idaho. Boyish Senator Frank Church seemed to be in serious trouble for a while, now appears to be pulling away from Republican John T. Hawley, lawyer and grandson of a former Idaho Governor.

Massachusetts. In the year's most publicized Senate race, President Kennedy's younger brother Teddy still leads Republican George Cabot Lodge.

Oklahoma. Though the state is still overwhelmingly Democratic in voter registration, Senator Mike Monroney is only slightly ahead of Goldwater Republican B. Hayden Crawford, a former U.S. attorney.

Oregon. The hold that windy Wayne Morse has on the voters of Oregon is one of the great puzzles in U.S. politics. Republican Sig Unander is making a hard run, but the puzzle probably will remain unsolved.

Pennsylvania. Joseph S. Clark, one of the Senate's most liberal liberals, appears to have an edge on Republican Congressman James E. Van Zandt, will probably be re-elected unless Republican Gubernatorial Candidate William Scranton (TIME cover, Oct. 19) wins big enough to pull Van Zandt along with him.

Wyoming. The unhappy distinction of being the Democratic Senator most likely to lose his seat to a Republican belongs to J. J. Hickey. The Republican: ex-Governor Milward Simpson. The last time the two met, in 1958, Hickey beat Simpson. But when Republican Senator-elect Keith Thompson died in late 1960, Hickey resigned the governorship and turned the chair over to Secretary of State Jack Gage, who thereupon appointed Hickey to replace Thompson. Hickey's ploy stirred up a lot of voter discontent. Last week, just after he returned from Washington to get his campaign going, Hickey suffered a heart attack that will keep him sidelined until after the votes are counted.

SAFE REPUBLICAN SEATS--8

Iowa. Against an Iowa State University professor. Senator Bourke Hickenlooper seems secure in Republican Iowa.

Kansas (2). Republican Incumbents Frank Carlson and James B. Pearson are running far enough ahead of the Democratic hopefuls.

New Hampshire (2). Senator Norris Cotton looks safe despite the internecine warfare that has weakened the Republican Party in New Hampshire this year. In more precarious position is Republican Congressman Perkins Bass, running for the seat of the late Senator Styles Bridges. Bass beat Bridges' Widow Doloris in a bitter primary, and the wounds have not yet healed.

New York. Democrat James B. Donovan, the lawyer sent to negotiate with Fidel Castro, has about as much chance of getting elected mayor of Havana as he has of beating Republican Senator Jacob Javits.

North Dakota. Incumbent Milton Young is way ahead.

Vermont. George D. Aiken, elected to the U.S. Senate in 1940, is considered unbeatable by just about everybody in Vermont, apparently including his Democrat opponent, Furniture Dealer W. Robert Johnson, who publicly admits that he is trying not to "antagonize" Aiken.

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN DOUBT--10

California. Senator Thomas Kuchel beat Democratic State Senator Richard Richards by nearly 450,000 votes in their 1956 Senate race. This time the contest looks closer, but Kuchel is expected to wind up ahead, unless Governor Pat Brown unexpectedly scores a big win over Richard Nixon.

Connecticut. Senator Prescott Bush might have won reelection, but he decided to retire because of ill health. In the contest for the vacated seat, Democrat Abraham A. Ribrcoff is leading Republican Congressman Horace Seely-Brown Jr.

Idaho. Republican Businessman-Rancher Len B. Jordan is likely to hold on to the Senate seat he was appointed to last August after the death of Senator Henry Dworshak. The Democratic candidate. Congresswoman Gracie Pfost, is a skillful person-to-person campaigner, but the delayed adjournment of Congress left her little time for getting out among the voters.

Illinois. Senate Minority Leader Everett McKinley Dirksen professes to detect "a distinct Republican vibration on the march" in his race with liberal Democratic Congressman Sidney R. Yates. But Yates might pile up a big enough majority in Chicago to give Dirksen a scare on election night.

Indiana. Homer E. Capehart, running for a third term, is up against a dangerous opponent in articulate Birch Evan Bayh, 34, minority leader of the state legislature's lower house. But in traditionally Republican Indiana, Capehart has a party-label advantage that Bayh may not be able to overcome.

Kentucky. Liberal Democratic Lieutenant Governor Wilson Wyatt is involved in a hairbreadth race with Senator Thruston B. Morton, former G.O.P. National Chairman.

Maryland. It looks as if the seat that Republican Senator John Marshall Butler decided to resign will be captured by New Frontier Democrat Daniel B. Brewster, U.S. Congressman and head of the Maryland State Fair and Agricultural Society. A statewide savings-and-loan scandal, which last week resulted in a federal grand jury's indicting a Democratic Congressman, is not expected to damage Brewster's prospects enough to matter.

South Dakota. Republican Joe H. Bottum, appointed last July to the seat of the late Francis Case, has a thin edge over George McGovern, ex-Congressman, lately Food for Peace director in the Kennedy Administration.

Utah. In a stark battle between out right liberal and unabashed conservative, Democratic Congressman David S. King appears to have an outside chance of ousting Senator Wallace F. Bennett.

Wisconsin. So close is the race between Senator Alexander Wiley and ex-Governor Gaylord Nelson that Nelson predicts he will win or lose by one per cent.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.