Who's Next?

Ever since Britain gave India its freedom in 1947, Independence Day in New Delhi has followed the pattern set by Jawaharlal Nehru, its unvarying master of ceremonies and India's only Prime Minister. Last week's anniversary was no exception. After laying a wreath on the Jumna River bank where Mahatma Gandhi was cremated, Nehru mounted the ramparts of New Delhi's ancient Red Fort, hoisted India's saffron, green and white tricolor and, beaming proprietorially at the vast multitude below, embarked on his annual address to the nation.

The speech was notably briefer than the Panditji's customary Independence Day oration. Without mentioning Communist China, he warned: "People living across our borders look at us with hostile eyes and occasionally talk of war. I hope there won't be any war, but let us be prepared." Preparedness, he emphasized earlier at a press conference, does not include allying India with Asia's anti-Communist nations or joining "some military bloc." "Even if disaster comes to us on the frontier," he said, "I am not going to let India rely on foreign arms to save its territory."

Straw Man? While he was calculatedly vague about how India was to achieve military preparedness, Nehru said not a word on a subject that is hardly less vital to the nation's future: his successor. Since his feverish campaign for last February's general election, 72-year-old Nehru on several occasions has been bedridden for weeks at a time. Though he has recently regained much of his old bounce, and even brags that his health is "extraordinarily good," the guessing game about his successor was keener than ever last week.

Indications are that when Nehru steps down, his Congress Party will nominate a straw man who resembles him as closely as possible. Likeliest candidate is Lai Bahadur Shastri, 58, Nehru's bland Home Minister, who, while probably equal to the job, lacks the personal dynamism to .#11 it permanently. Conservatives favor Finance Minister Morarji Desai, a dogged free-enterpriser in a statist Cabinet and a stern ascetic who once gave up conjugal relations with his wife for 20 years. But Desai's austerity programs have not made him popular. Socialist Leader Jayaprakash Narayan is, next to Nehru, the most pop- ular man in India, but his simple syrup solutions for complex problems have hurt his reputation -- and besides, Congress Party leaders can hardly be expected to favor the man who leads the opposition.

In the Family? Nehru's own personal favorites in the succession sweepstakes are said to be his daughter, Indira Gandhi, 44, widow of Congress Party Backbencher Feroze Gandhi (no kin to the Mahatma), and acerbic, West-baiting Defense Minis ter Krishna Menon, 65. Nehru envisions his daughter, who is his closest confidante, as a stopgap Prime Minister who could keep India on an even keel until the Congress Party chose a permanent successor.

For that post, Nehru is said to prefer Menon, the only one of his Cabinet colleagues he regards as his intellectual equal.

Menon has been given a chance to gain popularity by grabbing Goa from the Portuguese, and by arguing India's claim to disputed Kashmir in the U.N. But his arrogance and impenetrable prejudices irritate most politicians. Menon's health is also in question; last fall he had a brain operation, and reportedly will soon undergo another. Replying to an Independence Day tribute last week, Menon murmured: "Personalities die, but not causes." Many an Indian, pained at the cloudy succession question, would add that it takes a personality to run a country.

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